Adrian Bulldogs
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2021 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 850 (#579) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 834 (#563) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 778 (#765) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -15.0 (#315) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -20.1 (#687) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.173 (#691) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.193 (#48) | NetEff -13.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.142 (#590) | AdjNet -15.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.135 (#591) | AdjNet -15.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.254 (#587) | AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 78.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.214 (#729) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 85.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.142 (#717) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.144 (#723) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 735 (#589) | RD 101 | GP 22 |
2021 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-20 | @ | Bluffton | L | 59 - 61 |
| 2020-12-07 | @ | Western Mich. | L | 42 - 62 |
| 2020-12-09 | @ | Eastern Mich. | L | 35 - 95 |
| 2020-12-11 | @ | Bluffton | L | 71 - 72 |
| 2020-12-12 | @ | Bluffton | L | 52 - 68 |
| 2021-01-16 | vs | Spring Arbor | L | 60 - 78 |
| 2021-01-23 | vs | Albion | L | 60 - 95 |
| 2021-01-27 | vs | Olivet | W | 80 - 67 |
| 2021-01-28 | vs | Olivet | - | Preview |
| 2021-01-30 | vs | Trine | L | 49 - 59 |
| 2021-02-03 | vs | Albion | L | 70 - 81 |
| 2021-02-06 | @ | Alma | W | 85 - 80 |
| 2021-02-09 | @ | Calvin | L | 57 - 59 |
| 2021-02-17 | @ | Olivet | - | Preview |
| 2021-02-20 | @ | Trine | - | Preview |
| 2021-02-24 | @ | Albion | L | 56 - 95 |
| 2021-02-25 | vs | Hope | L | 86 - 89 |
| 2021-02-27 | vs | Alma | W | 76 - 67 |
| 2021-03-02 | @ | Hope | L | 71 - 99 |
2021 Roster
No roster data available for this season.