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UT Martin Skyhawks 8-16
@
2020-12-05
Illinois Fighting Illini 24-7

Model Predictions

Model UT Martin Skyhawks Illinois Fig... Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 0.6% (#325) 99.4% (#3) Illinoi... -34.6 53-88
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 5.1% (#303) 94.9% (#6) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 0.0% (#339) 100.0% (#3) Illinoi... -42.2 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 7.7% (#334) 92.3% (#20) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 1.0% (#338) 99.0% (#4) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 1.0% (#338) 99.0% (#4) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 2.8% (#339) 97.2% (#3) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat UT Martin Skyhawks Illinois Fig...
Games 17 30
PPG 62.9 80.5
FG% 40.1% 49.7%
3PT% 32.5% 36.8%
FT% 68.9% 68.8%
RPG 30.4 40.1
APG 11.8 16.4
SPG 6.8 5.6
BPG 2.4 2.7
TOPG 14.3 12.8

Efficiency Ratings

Metric UT Martin Skyhawks Illinois Fig...
Adj. Off Eff 88.2 114.4
Adj. Def Eff 111.8 85.6
Adj. Net Eff -23.5 28.8

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

UT Martin Skyhawks Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Eden Holt 9.9 3.1 3.4 1.4 0.0 32.1
Cameron Holden 14.9 8.3 2.0 1.7 0.3 27.3
Jaron Williams 10.3 3.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 27.2
Kenton Eskridge 5.7 3.2 3.5 1.2 0.0 26.9
Eman Sertovic 6.3 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 26.3

Illinois Fighting Illini Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Ayo Dosunmu 20.1 6.3 5.3 1.1 0.2 35.1
Trent Frazier 10.4 2.8 2.8 1.3 0.1 33.9
Kofi Cockburn 17.7 9.5 0.2 0.3 1.3 27.0
Adam Miller 8.3 2.8 0.8 0.6 0.0 25.5
Da'Monte Williams 5.5 5.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 24.9