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Pacific Tigers 9-9
@
2020-12-16
Cal State Northridge Matadors 9-13

Model Predictions

Model Pacific Tigers Cal State No... Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 65.5% (#159) 34.5% (#282) Pacific Tigers -5.5 73-68
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 65.2% (#137) 34.8% (#260) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 83.0% (#128) 17.0% (#262) Pacific Tigers -8.7 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 57.2% (#223) 42.8% (#280) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 85.1% (#128) 14.9% (#263) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 85.1% (#128) 14.9% (#263) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 64.3% (#135) 35.7% (#277) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Pacific Tigers Cal State No...
Games 18 19
PPG 69.8 70.2
FG% 43.8% 41.4%
3PT% 29.9% 33.6%
FT% 67.9% 72.1%
RPG 34.6 33.8
APG 12.9 12.8
SPG 6.4 6.4
BPG 3.4 2.2
TOPG 12.0 11.8

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Pacific Tigers Cal State No...
Adj. Off Eff 101.7 95.1
Adj. Def Eff 98.3 104.9
Adj. Net Eff 3.5 -9.9

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Pacific Tigers Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Daniss Jenkins 12.2 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.7 31.2
Jeremiah Bailey 11.4 6.2 1.1 1.7 0.3 30.9
Broc Finstuen 11.2 5.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 28.4
Pierre Crockrell II 10.1 2.5 4.1 0.8 0.1 26.4
Jordan Bell 8.9 6.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 25.6

Cal State Northri... Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Darius Brown II 10.4 4.8 5.3 1.9 0.1 34.4
TJ Starks 21.6 3.1 2.8 1.4 0.1 33.6
Alex Merkviladze 9.8 7.0 1.0 0.3 0.2 28.0
Lance Coleman II 13.3 3.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 27.4
Vante Hendrix 8.0 3.1 1.3 1.1 0.3 24.0