🐻⬇️🏀

Texas Southern Tigers 17-9
@
2021-01-02
Alcorn State Braves 6-13

Model Predictions

Model Texas Southe... Alcorn State Braves Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 81.4% (#124) 18.6% (#323) Texas S... -11.4 76-65
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 76.1% (#95) 23.9% (#294) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 88.5% (#214) 11.5% (#338) Texas S... -11.2 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 74.8% (#105) 25.2% (#315) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 88.9% (#199) 11.1% (#330) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 89.2% (#199) 10.8% (#331) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 69.8% (#207) 30.2% (#336) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Texas Southe... Alcorn State Braves
Games 21 15
PPG 73.4 67.1
FG% 44.7% 40.4%
3PT% 26.5% 30.7%
FT% 69.2% 72.6%
RPG 39.0 30.9
APG 12.1 9.4
SPG 7.2 7.3
BPG 4.2 1.7
TOPG 15.0 14.9

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Texas Southe... Alcorn State Braves
Adj. Off Eff 98.0 89.8
Adj. Def Eff 102.0 110.2
Adj. Net Eff -4.1 -20.3

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Texas Southern Tigers Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Michael Weathers 15.5 5.1 3.2 2.1 0.9 30.1
Justin Hopkins 8.5 4.0 1.2 0.8 0.1 28.5
John Walker III 12.2 5.5 1.2 0.7 1.1 26.1
Jordan Gilliam 5.9 3.2 2.7 0.9 0.4 26.0
Galen Alexander 9.9 4.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 25.4

Alcorn State Braves Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Troymain Crosby 18.9 5.5 0.6 1.0 0.0 29.5
Kurk Lee 9.9 2.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 28.0
Justin Thomas 4.1 2.6 2.9 0.9 0.3 25.7
Oddyst Walker 8.9 3.1 0.5 1.6 0.1 25.5
David Pierce 8.7 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 23.1