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Charleston Cougars 9-10
@
2021-02-25
UNC Wilmington Seahawks 7-10

Model Predictions

Model Charleston Cougars UNC Wilmingt... Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 45.7% (#234) 54.3% (#280) UNC Wil... -0.1 70-71
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 46.5% (#239) 53.5% (#266) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 44.5% (#224) 55.5% (#238) UNC Wil... -1.2 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 43.7% (#210) 56.3% (#177) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 51.4% (#206) 48.6% (#222) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 51.4% (#206) 48.6% (#222) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 43.6% (#228) 56.4% (#233) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Charleston Cougars UNC Wilmingt...
Games 19 14
PPG 70.6 77.4
FG% 45.1% 43.3%
3PT% 37.4% 33.9%
FT% 71.1% 76.8%
RPG 32.8 33.4
APG 10.6 11.3
SPG 5.3 6.1
BPG 2.8 3.7
TOPG 10.3 11.1

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Charleston Cougars UNC Wilmingt...
Adj. Off Eff 97.6 97.0
Adj. Def Eff 102.4 103.0
Adj. Net Eff -4.8 -6.0

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Charleston Cougars Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Payton Willis 13.4 3.2 3.1 0.8 0.3 34.4
Zep Jasper 15.6 3.7 2.6 0.8 0.1 32.7
Osinachi Smart 4.9 6.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 25.8
Brenden Tucker 9.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.1 25.4
Brevin Galloway 15.0 3.0 2.8 1.5 0.5 23.8

UNC Wilmington Seahawks Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Joe Pridgen 12.4 8.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 34.2
Ty Gadsden 14.6 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 34.1
Jaylen Sims 18.2 5.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 33.5
Mike Okauru 14.2 5.2 3.9 1.7 0.2 32.8
Jamahri Harvey 7.9 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.0 26.6