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Oregon State Beavers 18-13
@
2020-03-12
Oregon Ducks 24-7

Model Predictions

Model Oregon State Beavers Oregon Ducks Spread Projected
Elo
2019-20 season-end ratings
 13.5% (#87) 86.5% (#15) Oregon Ducks -11.7 66-78
Bradley-Terry
2019-20 season-end ratings
 19.7% (#96) 80.3% (#13) - -
Margin
2019-20 season-end ratings
 10.7% (#74) 89.3% (#11) Oregon Ducks -11.6 -
Pythagorean
2019-20 season-end ratings
 41.1% (#101) 58.9% (#20) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2019-20 season-end ratings
 12.9% (#74) 87.1% (#13) - -
Log Adjusted
2019-20 season-end ratings
 12.6% (#74) 87.4% (#13) - -
Points Off/Def
2019-20 season-end ratings
 26.3% (#76) 73.7% (#11) - -

2019-20 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.8-point home edge (2018-19 margin fit); projected score: 2018-19's average total of 144 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Oregon State Beavers Oregon Ducks
Games 27 29
PPG 71.1 76.5
FG% 46.0% 47.3%
3PT% 32.1% 40.4%
FT% 75.4% 69.8%
RPG 32.6 35.3
APG 15.0 14.6
SPG 6.2 7.7
BPG 5.0 3.4
TOPG 11.4 11.9

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Oregon State Beavers Oregon Ducks
Adj. Off Eff 106.1 111.7
Adj. Def Eff 93.9 88.3
Adj. Net Eff 12.3 23.4

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Oregon State Beavers Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Ethan Thompson 15.4 4.2 4.4 1.3 0.2 35.4
Tres Tinkle 18.1 6.8 3.2 1.8 0.4 34.5
Kylor Kelley 11.1 5.3 0.9 0.3 3.6 29.1
Zach Reichle 7.9 3.1 2.2 0.9 0.2 28.6
Alfred Hollins 5.3 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 19.3

Oregon Ducks Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Payton Pritchard 20.5 4.3 5.5 1.5 0.0 36.6
Will Richardson 11.0 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.2 30.3
Chris Duarte 12.9 5.6 1.6 1.7 0.5 30.1
Shakur Juiston 7.9 6.3 2.0 1.0 0.6 28.1
Anthony Mathis 8.5 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 23.5