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2026-02-28

Model Predictions

Model Boise State Broncos Fresno State Bulldogs Spread Result
Elo 80.8% 19.2% -
Bradley-Terry 69.6% 30.4% -
Margin 75.0% 25.0% -6.0 (10.0 off)
Pythagorean 56.0% 44.0% -
Efficiency 96.6% 3.4% -
Adjusted Efficiency 81.4% 18.6% -
Log Adjusted 81.6% 18.4% -
Points Off/Def 61.4% 38.6% -

Actual: Fresno State Bulldogs -16 (53-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Boise State Broncos

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
A. Meadow 34 5-15 3-10 1-3 5 1 1 0 1 14 5 +20.4
J. Buchanan 34 11-18 3-6 1-1 6 3 2 0 1 26 18 +15.4
D. Andrews 31 3-12 1-8 4-4 6 3 0 0 2 11 6 +22.5
RJ Keene 30 1-4 1-4 0-0 4 0 1 0 0 3 4 +12.9
D. Fielder 25 0-4 0-2 0-0 6 0 0 0 2 0 0 +11.4
A. Neto 18 0-2 0-2 0-0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 -2.6
D. Parolin 15 3-4 1-1 0-0 9 0 1 0 1 7 12 +5.1
S. Ahrens 10 2-5 1-3 0-0 2 0 0 0 1 5 1 -2.9
B. Buom 3 1-1 1-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 +1.0

Fresno State Bulldogs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Gory 39 9-20 0-3 2-5 11 0 2 1 2 20 12 -16.8
J. Heidbreder 37 1-9 1-5 0-0 2 1 0 0 0 3 -3 -19.1
B. Rieber 34 1-3 0-1 0-0 1 5 0 0 2 2 3 -14.4
W. Jacques 32 7-12 0-2 2-2 4 0 0 1 3 16 6 -15.8
C. Faas 20 1-3 1-2 0-0 3 0 2 0 0 3 5 +0.1
J. Mani 17 3-5 1-3 0-0 5 1 0 1 0 7 9 -0.7
G. Kocevar 13 0-1 0-1 2-2 2 0 0 1 0 2 4 -11.2
A. Soqui Urbano 7 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.9
M. Porto 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.0

* = starter