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UT Arlington Mavericks 79
@
Arkansas State Red Wolves 83
2024-12-12

Model Predictions

Model UT Arlington Mavericks Arkansas State Red Wolves Spread Result
Elo 21.6% 78.4% - ✓
Bradley-Terry 11.9% 88.1% - ✓
Margin 7.9% 92.1% +13.5 ✓ (9.5 off)
Pythagorean 30.7% 69.3% - ✓
Efficiency 31.0% 69.0% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 7.4% 92.6% - ✓
Log Adjusted 7.3% 92.7% - ✓
Points Off/Def 21.5% 78.5% - ✓

Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +4 (83-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.

UT Arlington Mavericks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
L. Ware 36 4-6 0-0 3-5 7 2 2 4 2 11 18 -4.2
D. Burford 34 3-10 1-3 1-2 7 6 0 0 3 8 8 -2.2
J. Wells 32 6-14 5-13 2-6 4 2 0 0 2 19 9 -12.3
R. Seamster 27 4-10 1-3 1-4 7 3 1 1 2 10 10 -1.4
D. Smith 22 6-8 3-5 0-0 5 0 2 1 2 15 13 +13.2
B. Robinson 21 2-6 2-2 2-4 0 0 1 0 0 8 3 +5.3
B. Talbot 15 2-4 2-4 0-0 0 2 0 0 0 6 4 -1.1
J. Ellingsworth 11 1-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 -6.8
T. Hupstead 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 -6.2

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Julien 31 2-10 0-4 10-11 7 2 0 1 2 14 12 +6.5
T. Todd 31 8-16 2-5 5-8 8 4 1 0 0 23 20 +5.9
J. Pinion 30 4-8 3-7 5-6 4 1 3 2 2 16 16 +13.9
R. Marshall 24 3-6 0-0 4-6 6 0 1 0 1 10 10 +5.8
D. Dominguez 23 0-2 0-2 3-6 2 0 2 1 2 3 4 -4.0
A. Felts 17 1-4 1-4 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 +3.7
I. Nelson 16 2-2 0-0 0-0 2 1 1 0 0 4 6 +0.9
D. Ford 14 2-4 0-0 3-3 2 0 0 0 1 7 4 -12.9
C. Head 7 0-2 0-0 0-0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 +3.0
T. Ford Jr. 6 1-2 0-0 0-0 0 2 2 0 1 2 3 +1.1
Z. Butler 1 0-1 0-1 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2.0

* = starter