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2025-02-17

Model Predictions

Model Duke Blue Devils Virginia Cavaliers Spread Result
Elo 85.8% 14.2% -
Bradley-Terry 88.6% 11.4% -
Margin 97.9% 2.1% -21.3 (3.3 off)
Pythagorean 67.0% 33.0% -
Efficiency 66.9% 33.1% -
Adjusted Efficiency 96.3% 3.7% -
Log Adjusted 96.3% 3.7% -
Points Off/Def 87.3% 12.7% -

Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -18 (62-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Duke Blue Devils

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
T. Proctor 31 3-7 1-3 0-0 0 3 0 1 1 7 3 +3.8
C. Flagg 30 8-16 0-3 1-2 14 2 2 2 0 17 21 +8.1
K. Knueppel 29 5-12 3-6 4-4 7 1 1 0 1 17 13 +12.6
I. Evans 22 6-7 5-6 0-0 3 0 0 2 0 17 15 -2.7
S. James 21 3-3 0-0 3-3 3 3 0 0 1 9 11 +15.6
K. Maluach 19 1-2 0-0 0-0 4 1 0 0 1 2 4 -3.0
M. Gillis 15 0-3 0-2 0-0 3 2 1 0 1 0 2 +2.9
P. Ngongba II 11 4-5 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 8 4 +4.3
M. Brown 10 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 +4.5
C. Foster 7 0-3 0-3 1-2 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 -0.4
D. Harris 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Virginia Cavaliers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
A. Rohde 34 5-10 2-4 3-4 5 5 1 0 2 15 14 -8.3
I. McKneely 34 4-9 4-7 2-2 3 2 1 0 1 14 10 -4.5
D. Ames 30 6-12 1-4 2-3 1 3 0 0 1 15 6 +0.2
E. Saunders 23 1-8 1-4 4-4 3 2 0 0 0 7 4 -0.8
B. Buchanan 21 1-3 0-0 0-0 3 1 1 1 0 2 5 -1.8
A. Robinson 19 3-4 0-0 1-2 3 0 0 1 1 7 6 -3.9
J. Cofie 17 0-2 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -5.2
T. Murray 11 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4.4
I. Sharma 9 0-3 0-2 2-2 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 +0.1
TJ Power 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter