Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 85.8% | 14.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 88.6% | 11.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 97.9% | 2.1% | -21.3 | ✓ (3.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 67.0% | 33.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.3% | 3.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 96.3% | 3.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 87.3% | 12.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -18 (62-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Proctor | 31 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +3.8 |
| C. Flagg | 30 | 8-16 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 21 | +8.1 |
| K. Knueppel | 29 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | +12.6 |
| I. Evans | 22 | 6-7 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 15 | -2.7 |
| S. James | 21 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | +15.6 |
| K. Maluach | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3.0 |
| M. Gillis | 15 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2.9 |
| P. Ngongba II | 11 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4.3 |
| M. Brown | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +4.5 |
| C. Foster | 7 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -0.4 |
| D. Harris | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rohde | 34 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | -8.3 |
| I. McKneely | 34 | 4-9 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | -4.5 |
| D. Ames | 30 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +0.2 |
| E. Saunders | 23 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | -0.8 |
| B. Buchanan | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1.8 |
| A. Robinson | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -3.9 |
| J. Cofie | 17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -5.2 |
| T. Murray | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -4.4 |
| I. Sharma | 9 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +0.1 |
| TJ Power | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter