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2025-01-04

Model Predictions

Model UC Davis Aggies Cal State Northridge Matadors Spread Result
Elo 16.4% 83.6% -
Bradley-Terry 29.8% 70.2% -
Margin 11.6% 88.4% +11.2 (0.8 off)
Pythagorean 27.8% 72.2% -
Efficiency 29.1% 70.9% -
Adjusted Efficiency 14.4% 85.6% -
Log Adjusted 14.3% 85.7% -
Points Off/Def 26.7% 73.3% -

Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors +12 (73-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.

UC Davis Aggies

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Ty Johnson 35 3-16 0-4 11-14 6 2 4 0 7 17 6 -10.0
L. DeBruhl 31 2-11 1-5 2-2 3 3 4 0 3 7 3 -10.8
C. Sevilla 30 2-9 2-8 5-6 1 0 1 0 2 11 2 -4.9
N. Rocak 27 1-2 1-1 0-1 8 2 0 2 0 3 13 -5.0
N. Cooper 24 2-4 1-1 3-3 1 2 1 0 0 8 8 -14.5
P. Tamba 20 3-6 0-1 0-3 7 2 2 0 3 6 8 +2.5
S. Lose 12 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 1 0 1 0 3 -11.3
I. Chappell 11 2-2 2-2 0-0 1 0 1 0 0 6 6 -7.2
C. Daughtery Jr. 8 1-2 1-2 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 -3.1
J. Mani 2 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -

Cal State Northridge Matadors

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Adams Jr. 36 11-17 5-9 1-3 7 0 0 2 3 28 17 +12.1
K. Jones 35 4-9 0-0 5-11 20 6 3 1 4 13 30 +14.1
S. Washington 35 4-8 1-3 1-1 3 3 0 0 2 10 6 +4.1
PJ Fuller II 33 2-7 1-4 2-4 3 5 1 0 8 7 1 +11.8
M. Fofana 27 6-8 0-0 3-4 4 1 1 0 0 15 13 +11.6
J. Brinson 11 0-3 0-0 0-0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 +5.5
G. Lewis 9 0-2 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 +4.2
T. Beard 7 0-2 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 +3.0
F. Ndumanya 6 0-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.9
J. Barbee 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +1.0

* = starter