🐻⬇️🏀

Wittenberg

Also known as: Wittenberg
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1000 (#244) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1090 (#169) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 991 (#485) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +7.7 (#113) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +6.0 (#260) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.861 (#265) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +0.9 More → 0.530 (#351) NetEff +0.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +21.4 More → 0.922 (#194) AdjNet +21.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.3 More → 0.926 (#195) AdjNet +21.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 70.3 | AdjD 57.4 More → 0.764 (#194) AdjO 70.3 | AdjD 57.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 56.7 More → 0.607 (#224) AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 56.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.610 (#291) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.613 (#285) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 21 More → 1042 (#264) RD 100 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Chris. Newport L 66 - 80
2025-11-09 @ Wilmington (OH) W 70 - 57
2025-11-14 vs Allegheny W 71 - 59
2025-11-15 @ Chatham L 38 - 57
2025-11-25 @ Adrian W 69 - 62
2025-12-22 @ Capital W 64 - 55
2025-12-30 vs Marietta L 52 - 60
2026-01-10 vs Ohio Wesleyan L 67 - 76
2026-01-14 vs DePauw L 32 - 51
2026-01-17 @ Oberlin W 61 - 52
2026-01-21 @ Denison L 68 - 84
2026-01-24 vs John Carroll L 55 - 65
2026-01-31 vs Wooster W 64 - 53
2026-02-04 vs Kenyon W 79 - 52
2026-02-07 @ Ohio Wesleyan L 59 - 65

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Karsen Karlblom - 10 31.6 14.0 5.2 2.3 1.3 0.2 2.2 11.7 9.1 57 3.8 22.6 43.6 40.3 100.0 3.23 57.0 54.3
Molly Mossing - 15 25.8 13.1 5.7 1.2 1.5 0.5 2.5 11.7 7.8 -49 -2.5 -14.4 45.1 36.4 84.4 1.14 52.1 48.6
Catherine Buddenberg - 7 20.2 13.0 4.0 0.6 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.7 7.1 27 2.5 16.8 45.6 35.3 81.0 0.4 58.9 54.4
Karley Moore - 15 25.3 9.3 5.3 1.8 2.0 1.1 2.0 9.8 7.7 59 2.8 21.6 35.4 20.0 77.3 0.32 41.8 35.7
Madi Barnett - 15 30.6 8.5 2.7 3.3 1.3 0.0 4.9 9.0 1.8 7 0.3 1.9 31.9 29.0 62.7 1.18 40.3 35.2
Hope Orders - 15 20.7 4.7 2.6 0.8 1.1 0.1 1.1 6.1 2.1 60 2.9 29.5 29.3 27.9 0.0 1.11 38.2 38.6
Cadence Boyd - 15 25.2 3.0 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.0 2.0 3.2 3.0 16 0.8 6.1 22.9 21.4 60.7 2.41 37.3 29.2
Reagan Voigt - 1 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 -2 -1.0 -16.0 50.0 50.0 0 -0.03 75.0 75.0
Myah Johnson - 15 11.4 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.1 -4 -0.2 -3.6 51.9 0 50.0 -0.62 52.8 51.9
Maddie Griga - 15 11.2 1.5 3.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 16 0.8 11.4 39.1 0 44.4 1.67 40.8 39.1
Faith Martin - 14 8.6 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 1.6 1.0 23 1.2 21.8 36.4 27.3 0 -0.38 43.2 43.2
Nyla Richardson - 9 6.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.0 9 0.7 16.2 40.0 100.0 33.3 0.01 43.5 45.0
Maren Bolser - 4 5.6 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 1.0 2.2 -1 -0.1 -2.2 25.0 0.0 50.0 -0.9 34.7 25.0
Makenna Strycker - 2 2.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 -5 -1.7 -34.3 100.0 0 0 -0.04 100.0 100.0
Peyton Bethea - 5 4.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 12 2.0 26.6 33.3 0 100.0 2.64 51.5 33.3
Lailah Hadley - 7 8.6 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.3 0.7 1.6 -242 -13.4 -59.4 20.0 0.0 75.0 -2.67 37.0 20.0
Maddie Saleh - 1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 -0.01 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG