Winona St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1113 (#81) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1176 (#52) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1051 (#138) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +18.1 (#31) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +16.7 (#123) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.368 (#417) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.698 (#216) | NetEff +7.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.832 (#257) | AdjNet +13.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.847 (#254) | AdjNet +14.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.707 (#252) | AdjO 68.6 | AdjD 59.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.702 (#83) | AdjO 68.8 | AdjD 59.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.811 (#91) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.795 (#94) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1082 (#161) | RD 93 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Southeastern Okla. | W | 63 - 60 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Northwestern Okla. | L | 52 - 53 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Upper Iowa | L | 49 - 59 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Truman St. | W | 89 - 64 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Maryville (MO) | L | 47 - 62 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Concordia-St. Paul | W | 77 - 75 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Michigan Tech | W | 78 - 54 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Minnesota St. | L | 80 - 87 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | St. Cloud St. | W | 72 - 66 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Sioux Falls | W | 77 - 68 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | W | 84 - 78 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Wayne St. (NE) | W | 49 - 40 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Concordia-St. Paul | L | 85 - 87 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | MSU Moorhead | W | 84 - 80 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | Northern St. | L | 47 - 69 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Jamestown | W | 76 - 66 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Minn. Duluth | L | 55 - 59 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Bemidji St. | L | 65 - 72 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Mary | L | 58 - 66 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Minot St. | W | 74 - 64 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | W | 79 - 57 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Augustana (SD) | W | 82 - 49 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hailey Markworth | - | 22 | 33.4 | 17.0 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 12.9 | 11.3 | 70 | 2.9 | 11.4 | 49.8 | 37.2 | 77.8 | 1.03 | 57.4 | 52.7 |
| Vivica Bretton | - | 22 | 33.0 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 81 | 3.4 | 13.3 | 43.3 | 34.0 | 79.7 | 0.11 | 53.0 | 47.0 |
| Megan Schuman | - | 22 | 24.3 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 28 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 55.4 | 32.0 | 64.1 | 2.31 | 61.3 | 58.0 |
| Sadie Jarmolowicz | - | 22 | 35.5 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 54 | 2.3 | 7.5 | 37.3 | 38.3 | 84.0 | 1.77 | 56.8 | 51.6 |
| Breah Golden | - | 17 | 18.3 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 6.6 | -0.1 | 3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 35.4 | 31.9 | 100.0 | -1.43 | 46.2 | 45.1 |
| Alayna Suprenand | - | 22 | 17.6 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 71 | 3.0 | 31.8 | 28.3 | 21.9 | 72.2 | -1.1 | 40.5 | 37.0 |
| Natalie Meaux | - | 22 | 16.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 41 | 1.8 | 10.6 | 26.6 | 27.3 | 78.6 | -0.43 | 39.4 | 36.2 |
| Rylie Cother | - | 2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 50.9 | 50.0 |
| Myah Maull | - | 1 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 | -0.45 | 85.2 | 0 |
| Lydia Lakanen | - | 21 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 10 | 0.5 | 4.3 | 58.1 | 0.0 | 41.7 | 2.07 | 57.0 | 58.1 |
| Bria Stenstrom | - | 19 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -4 | -0.2 | -2.2 | 40.5 | 36.4 | 87.5 | -1.95 | 55.5 | 51.4 |
| Megan Johnson | - | 20 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 29 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 44.4 | 17.6 | 62.5 | 0.7 | 50.6 | 48.6 |
| Rachel Koenig | - | 11 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 6 | 0.5 | 13.8 | 44.4 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.05 | 40.5 | 44.4 |
| Eva Brooks | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.3 | -9.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.45 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG