Winona St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 905 (#378) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 925 (#396) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1009 (#235) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.8 (#184) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +8.0 (#190) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.569 (#304) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.998 (#45) | NetEff +59.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.888 (#149) | AdjNet +17.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.892 (#147) | AdjNet +18.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.775 (#147) | AdjO 79.9 | AdjD 66.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.565 (#186) | AdjO 70.0 | AdjD 67.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.572 (#263) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.569 (#257) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 959 (#258) | RD 95 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Southern Ark. | W | 60 - 59 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Washburn | L | 57 - 88 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Concordia-St. Paul | L | 58 - 83 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Wis.-Parkside | L | 70 - 77 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Fla. Southern | L | 77 - 88 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Saint Leo | L | 54 - 81 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Minnesota St. | W | 83 - 75 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | St. Cloud St. | L | 50 - 84 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Sioux Falls | W | 91 - 77 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | L | 56 - 76 |
| 2025-12-18 | @ | Augustana (SD) | L | 68 - 84 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Wayne St. (NE) | L | 64 - 65 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Concordia-St. Paul | W | 85 - 67 |
| 2026-01-09 | vs | Minn.-Crookston | L | 62 - 67 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | MSU Moorhead | L | 79 - 83 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | Northern St. | L | 80 - 84 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Jamestown | W | 79 - 70 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Minn. Duluth | L | 50 - 71 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Bemidji St. | W | 86 - 83 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Mary | W | 84 - 80 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Minot St. | W | 67 - 62 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | W | 60 - 57 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Augustana (SD) | L | 54 - 62 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Heise | - | 23 | 26.6 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 9.3 | 9.9 | -49 | -2.1 | -9.4 | 54.2 | 39.4 | 66.7 | -1.29 | 62.6 | 60.7 |
| Gavyn Hurley | - | 19 | 32.1 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 9.7 | 12.0 | -53 | -2.8 | -8.4 | 50.3 | 26.9 | 74.4 | -0.71 | 57.2 | 52.2 |
| Tyler Mason | - | 23 | 32.5 | 13.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 11.3 | 6.7 | -43 | -1.9 | -6.7 | 40.9 | 34.2 | 88.6 | -0.92 | 54.1 | 50.6 |
| Aidan Bardic | - | 23 | 28.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 7.9 | 6.2 | -66 | -2.9 | -12.7 | 40.7 | 20.0 | 71.2 | 0.93 | 46.6 | 42.3 |
| Alessandro Tonelli | - | 23 | 24.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 5.4 | -4 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 40.4 | 33.0 | 86.7 | 2.37 | 54.4 | 50.6 |
| Jaron Crews | - | 18 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | -58 | -3.2 | -18.9 | 42.3 | 35.2 | 76.5 | -1.79 | 53.2 | 50.9 |
| Tyler Borowski | - | 21 | 12.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | -54 | -2.6 | -28.9 | 34.4 | 28.6 | 60.0 | -3.26 | 43.5 | 42.6 |
| Tyson Keil | - | 23 | 11.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.6 | -34 | -1.5 | -16.6 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 70.0 | -2.1 | 55.5 | 47.5 |
| Ryan Watters | - | 12 | 17.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 2.8 | -37 | -3.1 | -30.2 | 33.3 | 18.2 | 100.0 | -1.74 | 39.3 | 38.5 |
| Kayden Wells | - | 4 | 13.7 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.2 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 50.0 | 33.3 | - | 53.6 | 56.2 |
| Jackson Hayes | - | 12 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | -22 | -1.8 | -31.8 | 40.9 | 0.0 | 72.7 | -0.13 | 48.4 | 40.9 |
| Connor Roffers | - | 19 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | -111 | -5.8 | -49.1 | 27.6 | 15.4 | 66.7 | -4.08 | 34.8 | 31.0 |
| Kellen Little | - | 10 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | -19 | -1.9 | -90.5 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 100.0 | -1.28 | 45.5 | 38.9 |
| Caleb Johnson | - | 6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.2 | 16.8 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.34 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG