Wilson
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 870 (#253) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 914 (#224) | HCA +81 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 949 (#238) | HCA +81 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -8.8 (#270) | HCA +2.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -8.8 (#272) | HCA +2.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.243 (#251) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.392 (#249) | AdjNet -8.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.391 (#249) | AdjNet -8.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.381 (#247) | AdjO 79.8 | AdjD 86.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.390 (#252) | AdjO 79.8 | AdjD 86.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.351 (#251) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.353 (#251) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 892 (#235) | RD 198 | GP 2 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.320 (#215) | Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. |
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | @ | Goucher | L | 88 - 99 |
| 2026-11-09 | @ | Shippensburg | L | 70 - 100 |
| 2026-11-10 | @ | Alvernia | L | 76 - 97 |
2026-2027 Roster
No roster data available for this season.