Williams
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 945 (#342) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1101 (#135) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 981 (#511) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.0 (#148) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.8 (#358) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.540 (#434) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.563 (#339) | NetEff +1.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.821 (#258) | AdjNet +13.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.820 (#260) | AdjNet +12.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.653 (#276) | AdjO 67.0 | AdjD 60.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.540 (#319) | AdjO 61.6 | AdjD 59.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.550 (#341) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.550 (#338) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1030 (#279) | RD 99 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Skidmore | L | 69 - 73 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Rensselaer | L | 70 - 73 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Saint Joseph (CT) | W | 62 - 38 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Plattsburgh St. | W | 74 - 47 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Springfield | W | 64 - 57 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Wesleyan (CT) | W | 53 - 46 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Smith | L | 48 - 67 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | DePauw | L | 37 - 72 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Trinity (CT) | L | 63 - 76 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Tufts | W | 67 - 63 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Connecticut Col. | W | 55 - 37 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Amherst | L | 57 - 63 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Middlebury | L | 51 - 62 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Bates | L | 51 - 64 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Curry | W | 81 - 58 |
| 2026-02-06 | vs | Colby | L | 62 - 68 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Bowdoin | L | 51 - 64 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Walton | - | 17 | 36.8 | 14.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 105 | 5.0 | 23.6 | 44.9 | 43.5 | 66.7 | 0.13 | 49.6 | 47.1 |
| Kathleen Smith | - | 17 | 31.3 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 104 | 5.0 | 25.6 | 56.4 | 0 | 74.5 | -0.33 | 59.8 | 56.4 |
| Logan Coster | - | 17 | 22.4 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 84 | 4.0 | 34.1 | 37.0 | 35.9 | 64.3 | 0.62 | 44.6 | 42.0 |
| Hanorah Murphy | - | 17 | 22.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 32 | 1.5 | 10.8 | 37.1 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 0.82 | 40.9 | 37.1 |
| Amaya Chase-Luthra | - | 17 | 13.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 68 | 3.4 | 123.5 | 39.7 | 29.4 | 78.6 | -0.48 | 47.7 | 43.7 |
| Tatum Leuenberger | - | 10 | 22.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | -4 | -0.4 | -1.5 | 29.8 | 35.0 | 75.0 | 0.55 | 39.0 | 37.2 |
| Mairi Smith | - | 9 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 16 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 46.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.98 | 47.6 | 46.7 |
| Sarah Pettegrove | - | 15 | 19.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 104 | 5.8 | 86.2 | 29.6 | 22.7 | 0 | -1.29 | 33.1 | 33.1 |
| Evelyn Walcott | - | 16 | 11.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 63.2 | 1.64 | 54.1 | 50.0 |
| Gracie Augustine | - | 15 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 22 | 1.2 | 16.4 | 32.7 | 28.0 | 50.0 | -2.11 | 39.4 | 39.1 |
| Skylar Chui | - | 12 | 13.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 13 | 0.8 | 9.2 | 39.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.65 | 41.7 | 39.3 |
| Jess Roy | - | 12 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 27 | 2.1 | 184.6 | 29.4 | 31.2 | 0 | 0.56 | 44.1 | 44.1 |
| Hannah Surrette | - | 6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 100.0 | 0.41 | 44.4 | 35.7 |
| Sarah Batra | - | 9 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.4 | -3 | -0.3 | -17.3 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.02 | 22.5 | 12.5 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG