Willamette
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 994 (#251) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 880 (#485) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 957 (#554) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.3 (#210) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +1.3 (#351) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.224 (#568) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.140 (#474) | NetEff -14.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.471 (#389) | AdjNet -1.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.466 (#387) | AdjNet -1.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.479 (#383) | AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 65.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.517 (#362) | AdjO 59.8 | AdjD 59.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.434 (#427) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.451 (#418) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 945 (#379) | RD 99 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | @ | Portland | L | 43 - 95 |
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Warner Pacific | W | 64 - 48 |
| 2025-11-11 | @ | Portland St. | L | 52 - 89 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Bushnell | L | 49 - 51 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Western Ore. | L | 81 - 88 |
| 2025-11-23 | vs | Walla Walla | L | 72 - 78 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | UC Santa Cruz | L | 45 - 72 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | UC Santa Cruz | W | 72 - 61 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Oregon Tech | L | 58 - 78 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Puget Sound | L | 46 - 62 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Linfield | L | 54 - 64 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Lewis & Clark | W | 82 - 57 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Pacific (OR) | W | 65 - 55 |
| 2026-01-27 | vs | George Fox | L | 41 - 65 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Whitman | L | 60 - 69 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Whitworth | W | 60 - 46 |
| 2026-02-06 | @ | Puget Sound | L | 57 - 68 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Pacific Lutheran | W | 63 - 52 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Walden | - | 18 | 30.4 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 11.6 | 7.6 | -7 | -0.3 | -1.4 | 42.6 | 39.4 | 72.7 | -1.89 | 52.8 | 51.4 |
| Kaitlin Imai | - | 18 | 29.1 | 11.9 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 11.4 | 5.7 | -3 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 40.3 | 27.5 | 66.7 | 2.57 | 47.6 | 44.9 |
| Gabbie Wilson | - | 9 | 24.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 2.1 | -21 | -1.6 | -5.3 | 36.7 | 33.3 | 75.0 | -2.88 | 45.7 | 43.3 |
| Emma Floyd | - | 18 | 24.4 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 2.6 | -5 | -0.2 | -1.1 | 33.0 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 1.4 | 46.9 | 46.2 |
| Gabby Wilson | - | 9 | 25.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 3.4 | -21 | -1.6 | -5.3 | 31.0 | 21.2 | 80.0 | -2.88 | 40.9 | 37.1 |
| Addie Hiler | - | 16 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 22 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 45.1 | 42.3 | 60.0 | -0.69 | 54.1 | 52.8 |
| Peyton Gardner | - | 18 | 22.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 11 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 29.9 | 19.2 | 59.4 | 2.97 | 36.3 | 32.2 |
| Daisy Boling-Schmidt | - | 18 | 17.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 5.2 | -24 | -1.2 | -6.9 | 36.7 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.86 | 42.5 | 36.7 |
| Mattie Thompson | - | 16 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 46.5 | 0 | 57.1 | -0.73 | 48.8 | 46.5 |
| Alexis Dockter | - | 17 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 0.4 | -37 | -1.8 | -18.4 | 27.0 | 23.1 | 100.0 | 0.95 | 36.8 | 34.1 |
| Leia Mata | - | 17 | 11.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 36 | 2.0 | 29.2 | 35.3 | 44.4 | 100.0 | -0.88 | 50.3 | 47.1 |
| Aasia Williams | - | 13 | 8.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | -6 | -0.4 | -7.1 | 38.1 | 18.2 | 54.5 | -1.37 | 46.4 | 42.9 |
| Jordyn Reed | - | 7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | -1 | -0.2 | -19.2 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.5 | 36.5 | 14.3 |
| Karsyn Ripplinger | - | 11 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -22 | -2.2 | -104.8 | 25.0 | 66.7 | 100.0 | -1.69 | 45.0 | 37.5 |
| Syd Shoemaker | - | 7 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 30.7 | 25.0 |
| Jaydin Lutu | - | 4 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG