🐻⬇️🏀

Western Kentucky

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Western Kentucky Lady Toppers
Program History
Coach: Greg Collins

2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)

71.3
PPG
64.7
Opp
+6.7
Margin
42.7%
FG%
28.8%
3P%
83.1%
FT%
38.0
RPG
14.7
APG
16.3
TO
69.3
Est. poss./game
61.7
Adj PPG
63.6
Adj Opp PPG
#243
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 822 (returning production + recruiting): last season 904, returning -26, transfers -56, freshmen +0 More → 847 (#258) Preseason prior 822 (returning production + recruiting): last season 904, returning -26, transfers -56, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +185 elo More → 880 (#266) HCA +185 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +185 elo More → 941 (#259) HCA +185 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -3.2 (#187) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → -2.9 (#184) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.133 (#277) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.2 More → 0.401 (#199) AdjNet +3.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +3.6 More → 0.401 (#199) AdjNet +3.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.7 | AdjD 63.6 More → 0.358 (#243) AdjO 61.7 | AdjD 63.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.7 | AdjD 63.7 More → 0.394 (#235) AdjO 61.7 | AdjD 63.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.379 (#217) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.386 (#215) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 195 | GP 2 More → 885 (#252) RD 195 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.258 (#249) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-04 vs Chattanooga Mocs W 61 - 50
2026-11-08 vs Christian Brothers Buccaneers W 94 - 43
2026-11-11 @ Vanderbilt Commodores L 59 - 101
2026-11-16 vs Kentucky State Thorobreds - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jamila Ray Jamila Ray G 3 20.0 14.3 4.0 1.7 1.0 0.0 3.3 10.7 7.0 25 3 8.3 16.4 37.5 11.1 85.7 2.27 52.1 39.1
Hayven Smith Hayven Smith C 3 22.0 11.3 3.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 8.3 6.7 -3 3 -1.0 -1.8 60.0 33.3 100.0 -1.99 64.6 62.0
Josie Gilvin Josie Gilvin G 3 32.0 10.3 7.7 4.3 1.0 0.3 3.7 8.3 11.7 5 3 1.7 2.1 56.0 28.6 25.0 3.09 57.9 60.0
Trinity Rowe Trinity Rowe G 3 27.0 8.7 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.0 2.3 9.0 3.0 -6 3 -2.0 -3.0 29.6 28.6 100.0 0.46 45.2 40.7
Ellery Minch Ellery Minch F 3 21.3 7.0 4.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.3 4.0 8.3 29 3 9.7 18.5 50.0 20.0 88.9 -0.15 65.8 54.2
Torri James Torri James F 3 21.0 5.7 3.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 3.7 6.0 -10 3 -3.3 -6.5 54.5 0 83.3 -2.59 62.3 54.5
Enni Ahervuo Enni Ahervuo G 1 16.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 16 1 16.0 40.1 25.0 50.0 100.0 -0.18 51.2 37.5
Tatum Boettjer Tatum Boettjer F 3 14.3 4.7 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 4.0 3.0 11 3 3.7 10.0 33.3 36.4 100.0 -1.18 54.3 50.0
Kamille Brown Kamille Brown G 3 23.0 3.3 4.7 2.7 1.0 0.0 2.3 3.7 5.7 -12 3 -4.0 -6.8 27.3 100.0 60.0 -1.1 37.9 31.8
Lola Bond Lola Bond G 2 8.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.0 21 2 10.5 48.6 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.54 67.6 62.5
Mafalda Fontan Mafalda Fontan G 2 8.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 3.0 0.5 19 2 9.5 47.2 33.3 20.0 0 0.95 41.7 41.7
Elise Coleman Elise Coleman G 1 9.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 5 1 5.0 23.3 0.0 0 100.0 -0.45 34.7 0.0
Elif Naz Dal Elif Naz Dal F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ava Moore Ava Moore G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

171 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Gilvin36% Smith36% Gilvin50% Smith50% Gilvin38% Boettjer40% Boettjer100% Rowe50% Gilvin50% Ahervuo20%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Smith50% Ray18% Smith25% Coleman33% Ray50% Ahervuo33% Boettjer50% Boettjer28% Gilvin40% Rowe43%
Misses: who misses most here

Hayven SmithJosie GilvinJamila RayTrinity RoweTatum BoettjerEnni AhervuoElise Coleman

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 14-16 87.5 28 Josie Gilvin 36% (10 pts) Jamila Ray 21% (6 pts) Hayven Smith 50% (1 misses) Torri James 50% (1 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 28-56 50.0 56 Hayven Smith 36% (20 pts) Jamila Ray 21% (12 pts) Jamila Ray 18% (5 misses) Josie Gilvin 18% (5 misses)
Mid-range left 2-10 20.0 4 Josie Gilvin 50% (2 pts) Trinity Rowe 50% (2 pts) Hayven Smith 25% (2 misses) Elise Coleman 12% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 2-5 40.0 4 Hayven Smith 50% (2 pts) Jamila Ray 50% (2 pts) Elise Coleman 33% (1 misses) Jamila Ray 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 8-18 44.4 16 Josie Gilvin 38% (6 pts) Hayven Smith 25% (4 pts) Jamila Ray 50% (5 misses) Enni Ahervuo 10% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 5-8 62.5 15 Tatum Boettjer 40% (6 pts) Hayven Smith 20% (3 pts) Enni Ahervuo 33% (1 misses) Mafalda Fontan 33% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 1-3 33.3 3 Tatum Boettjer 100% (3 pts) - Tatum Boettjer 50% (1 misses) Trinity Rowe 50% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 6-24 25.0 18 Trinity Rowe 50% (9 pts) Ellery Minch 17% (3 pts) Tatum Boettjer 28% (5 misses) Trinity Rowe 22% (4 misses)
Above-break 3 center 2-12 16.7 6 Josie Gilvin 50% (3 pts) Trinity Rowe 50% (3 pts) Josie Gilvin 40% (4 misses) Trinity Rowe 30% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 right 5-19 26.3 15 Enni Ahervuo 20% (3 pts) Kamille Brown 20% (3 pts) Trinity Rowe 43% (6 misses) Ellery Minch 21% (3 misses)