WestConn
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 928 (#369) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 920 (#440) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 930 (#582) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -10.1 (#289) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -9.9 (#498) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.172 (#600) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.325 (#409) | NetEff -4.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.061 (#583) | AdjNet -23.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.056 (#583) | AdjNet -23.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.200 (#582) | AdjO 54.3 | AdjD 69.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.392 (#544) | AdjO 55.2 | AdjD 60.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.330 (#505) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.336 (#507) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 915 (#405) | RD 98 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | vs | John Jay | W | 62 - 52 |
| 2025-11-13 | @ | Nichols | L | 43 - 55 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | UMSV | W | 50 - 37 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Wm. Paterson | L | 51 - 56 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Trinity (CT) | L | 40 - 57 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Saint Joseph (CT) | W | 70 - 44 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Eastern Conn. St. | L | 59 - 65 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Plymouth St. | L | 72 - 73 |
| 2025-12-28 | vs | Salisbury | L | 58 - 70 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Wilkes | W | 51 - 44 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | UMass Dartmouth | L | 56 - 69 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Keene St. | L | 62 - 77 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | VTSU Castleton | W | 59 - 51 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | SUNY Cobleskill | W | 64 - 61 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Southern Me. | L | 54 - 82 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Eastern Conn. St. | W | 57 - 54 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Plymouth St. | L | 52 - 62 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | UMass Boston | L | 58 - 66 |
| 2026-02-08 | @ | VTSU Castleton | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Macary | - | 18 | 33.6 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 46.5 | 33.3 | 87.3 | -1.4 | 52.6 | 47.0 |
| Leana Heitmann | - | 18 | 32.9 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 52 | 3.2 | 21.8 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 88.9 | 0.18 | 47.3 | 43.9 |
| Fatmata Barrie | - | 18 | 19.6 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | -21 | -1.2 | -9.0 | 44.8 | 0 | 59.7 | 0.12 | 50.2 | 44.8 |
| Malaysia Dingle | - | 18 | 30.6 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 30.8 | 38.9 | 79.3 | -0.02 | 43.3 | 37.5 |
| Deona Garcia | - | 15 | 13.9 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 6.7 | -0.5 | -1 | -0.1 | -1.0 | 28.0 | 18.8 | 81.8 | 1.66 | 35.3 | 32.5 |
| Gianna Castellano | - | 17 | 16.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 15 | 0.9 | 15.7 | 36.2 | 16.7 | 80.0 | 0.56 | 43.0 | 38.4 |
| Cameron Froehlich | - | 17 | 17.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 33 | 1.9 | 27.7 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 100.0 | 1.31 | 41.0 | 40.1 |
| Julyssa Patterson | - | 17 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 10 | 0.6 | 11.8 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 1.96 | 37.4 | 33.3 |
| Niyama Adadevoh | - | 18 | 10.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | -8 | -0.4 | -11.7 | 37.5 | 14.3 | 29.0 | 0.25 | 37.3 | 38.5 |
| Francesca Foster | - | 16 | 12.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | -12 | -0.8 | -13.1 | 22.2 | 18.8 | 60.0 | 1.15 | 29.7 | 25.0 |
| Finley Burke | - | 8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | -15 | -1.9 | -182.7 | 80.0 | 0 | 16.7 | -0.67 | 58.9 | 80.0 |
| Elise Chanka | - | 16 | 11.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 19 | 1.2 | 36.4 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 30.8 | 1.3 | 33.7 | 33.3 |
| Deborah Bueno | - | 11 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 37.5 | 0 | 75.0 | 0.65 | 46.1 | 37.5 |
| Niya Taylor | - | 8 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 10 | 1.2 | 151.9 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.28 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG