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Welch

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2022 2016
Also known as: Welch
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 990 (#282) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1004 (#263) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -22.5 (#393) HCA +2.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.187 (#673) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -24.5 More → 0.056 (#695) AdjNet -24.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -24.5 More → 0.054 (#689) AdjNet -24.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 88.4 More → 0.139 (#709) AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 88.4

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-15 @ Huntingdon L 61 - 108
2024-11-16 vs LaGrange L 75 - 99
2024-12-03 @ Covenant L 99 - 109
2025-01-28 vs Huntingdon L 67 - 90
2025-01-30 vs Covenant W 90 - 88

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Logan Patterson - 2 20.0 20.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 13.5 12.0 -18 -0.9 -3.7 48.1 46.7 66.7 0.44 63.5 61.1
Colt Donley - 1 18.0 12.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 8.0 5.0 -68 -3.8 -15.5 50.0 50.0 75.0 -0.33 61.5 56.2
Kaleb Lofton - 1 15.0 11.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 9.0 8.0 -86 -5.7 -14.3 44.4 0.0 75.0 -0.68 51.1 44.4
Reece Pride - 1 13.0 11.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 13.0 -45 -5.0 -19.1 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 101.1 110.0
BJ Brown - 1 20.0 10.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 12.0 8.0 -17 -0.8 -1.7 33.3 40.0 0 1.27 41.7 41.7
Pierce Smith - 1 17.0 10.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 15.0 -41 -1.9 -5.3 33.3 0 75.0 0.13 52.5 33.3
Myles Murphy - 2 14.5 9.5 4.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 7.0 7.5 8 0.5 3.3 57.1 37.5 0 0.66 67.9 67.9
DaQuan Hawkins - 1 10.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 3.0 27 2.5 42.2 50.0 50.0 0 -0.12 75.0 75.0
Donovan Wilson - 2 6.0 8.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.0 8 0.9 25.5 87.5 100.0 0.0 -0.46 90.1 100.0
Jaylen Washington - 2 18.0 7.5 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.0 7.0 3.5 6 0.3 0.8 42.9 22.2 100.0 1.5 51.9 50.0
Luuk Dusek - 2 18.0 7.5 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 1.0 8.0 3.0 -47 -4.3 -16.5 18.8 14.3 87.5 -0.19 38.4 25.0
Fisher Mitchell - 2 17.5 7.5 4.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 1.0 7.5 5.0 -60 -3.5 -23.9 40.0 12.5 100.0 -0.23 47.2 43.3
Eric Moore - 1 6.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 -1 -0.1 -1.0 60.0 50.0 0 0.06 70.0 70.0
Martise Jackson - 2 16.5 6.0 5.5 2.0 1.5 0.0 1.0 7.5 6.5 -26 -1.2 -2.8 33.3 28.6 0 0.53 40.0 40.0
Thomas Malcolm - 1 5.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 -17 -2.8 -14.9 100.0 0 0 -0.02 100.0 100.0
Adam Deininger - 2 10.0 5.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.5 -63 -5.2 -8.8 50.0 50.0 0 0.41 68.8 68.8
Nate Johns - 1 11.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 3.0 9 0.5 1.3 40.0 0.0 25.0 1.5 37.0 40.0
Ray'Quan Taylor - 2 6.0 5.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 -37 -2.1 -10.6 50.0 50.0 25.0 0.35 51.2 56.2
Jeremy Autin - 2 8.5 4.5 3.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 7.0 -26 -1.7 -9.4 60.0 0.0 75.0 0.37 66.6 60.0
Jake Stephens - 2 11.5 4.5 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 9 0.5 2.9 37.5 0.0 75.0 0.66 46.1 37.5
Keyshawn Dickey - 1 11.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 -1.0 8 0.4 3.9 33.3 0.0 0 0.29 33.3 33.3
Marcus Townsend - 1 6.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 -50 -4.2 -22.5 66.7 0 0 0.32 66.7 66.7
Gus Hood - 1 17.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 12.0 -36 -9.0 -12.1 66.7 0 0 0.2 66.7 66.7
Ethan Parker - 2 10.5 3.5 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 3.5 -4 -0.3 -1.9 40.0 100.0 100.0 0.15 59.5 50.0
Randall Davis - 2 9.5 3.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 3.0 4.5 37 2.5 23.8 50.0 0 0 0.3 50.0 50.0
Tate Goolesby - 2 15.5 3.0 7.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 0.5 3.0 8.5 38 2.2 6.4 33.3 0.0 100.0 1.43 43.6 33.3
Zach Wescher - 2 2.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.5 7 1.0 8.0 50.0 0.0 100.0 -0.06 79.8 50.0
Andersen Madyun - 2 5.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 4.0 17 1.5 238.6 100.0 0 0.0 -1.03 82.0 100.0
Jonathon Page - 2 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 -66 -9.4 -1115.5 33.3 0.0 50.0 -1.15 42.0 33.3
Jeremiah Carnegie - 2 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 -0.5 -7 -1.8 -39.2 20.0 25.0 0 -0.64 30.0 30.0
Richie Hicks - 2 3.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 -30 -6.0 -259.9 33.3 0.0 0 -0.83 33.3 33.3
Myles Johnson - 2 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -41 -8.2 -820.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 -1.22 41.0 50.0
Isaiah Mattews - 2 7.5 1.0 4.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 4.5 -23 -5.8 -247.5 33.3 0 0.0 -0.96 25.8 33.3
Jaylon Stevenson - 2 6.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -17 -1.4 -34.3 100.0 0 0 -0.3 100.0 100.0
Russell Hunter - 2 9.0 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 -29 -2.9 -10.5 33.3 0.0 0 0.04 33.3 33.3
Zak Thomas - 2 8.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 2.5 -17 -2.8 -25.3 0.0 0 50.0 -0.26 36.2 0.0
James White - 2 3.5 0.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 -0.5 -33 -5.5 -21.9 0.0 0 50.0 0.05 12.9 0.0
Isaac Rorey - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Sam Hailey - 1 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -13 -3.2 -300.0 0.0 0.0 0 -1.27 0.0 0.0
Cole Carroll - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -5 -0.4 -2.8 0 0 0.0 0.24 0.0 0
Derrius Teagle - 1 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -46 -3.8 -82.3 0.0 0 0 -0.27 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG