🐻⬇️🏀

Webster

Also known as: Webster
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 934 (#356) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 987 (#340) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1027 (#263) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -0.0 (#191) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -7.8 (#473) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.966 (#183) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +8.4 More → 0.772 (#241) NetEff +8.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +10.8 More → 0.775 (#280) AdjNet +10.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +8.9 More → 0.741 (#299) AdjNet +8.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 62.2 More → 0.656 (#273) AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 62.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 56.6 | AdjD 58.7 More → 0.452 (#475) AdjO 56.6 | AdjD 58.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.408 (#448) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.421 (#442) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 21 More → 986 (#331) RD 98 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Lake Forest W 84 - 35
2025-11-08 vs Aurora L 47 - 81
2025-11-19 @ Illinois Col. W 65 - 55
2025-11-25 @ Westminster (MO) W 65 - 45
2025-11-29 vs Augustana (IL) L 38 - 77
2025-12-03 vs Blackburn W 101 - 47
2025-12-13 vs St. Mary's (IN) W 82 - 71
2025-12-29 vs Centre L 64 - 66
2026-01-10 @ Principia W 55 - 50
2026-01-14 vs Eureka W 93 - 46
2026-01-17 @ Greenville W 86 - 64
2026-01-22 vs MUW W 85 - 70
2026-01-28 vs Blackburn W 80 - 62
2026-01-31 @ Knox L 53 - 83
2026-02-03 vs Lyon W 64 - 62
2026-02-05 vs Spalding W 45 - 41
2026-02-07 vs Principia L 55 - 59

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Dolan, Peyton - 1 18.0 14.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 7.0 - - - 55.6 50.0 0 - 77.8 77.8
Illingworth, Meghan - 1 23.0 13.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 9.0 12.0 - - - 55.6 0 50.0 - 55.8 55.6
Webb, Miya - 1 26.0 13.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 10.0 11.0 - - - 40.0 0.0 62.5 - 48.1 40.0
Kerce, Emily - 1 22.0 13.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 10.0 5.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 50.0 - 55.3 55.0
Miya Webb - 16 25.2 10.8 3.6 3.1 2.4 0.0 1.7 10.9 7.2 -90 -4.5 -18.0 32.8 25.0 75.9 1.34 43.5 37.6
Meghan Illingworth - 11 20.1 9.4 4.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 2.0 7.6 7.1 24 1.8 5.7 48.8 0 70.0 5.41 53.0 48.8
Akaela Caquelin - 16 22.0 8.9 4.7 1.5 1.9 0.4 1.6 8.7 7.1 -10 -0.5 -3.1 38.8 31.8 61.5 0.7 49.4 48.6
Claire Williams - 16 24.5 6.8 3.1 2.2 2.6 0.2 2.4 5.8 6.7 34 1.7 7.4 43.5 35.3 84.6 3.81 55.8 53.3
Emily Kerce - 16 18.8 6.3 2.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 1.6 6.8 1.9 -38 -1.8 -12.3 35.8 23.3 61.5 -5.18 41.9 39.0
Nolen, Kaimyla - 1 20.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 17.0 - - - 75.0 0 0.0 - 67.6 75.0
Grace Hupp - 16 12.1 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.9 0.2 1.3 4.8 3.9 19 0.9 9.4 36.8 30.8 76.2 3.06 49.3 44.7
McCammon, Chassity - 1 12.0 5.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 8.0 9.0 - - - 25.0 0 25.0 - 25.6 25.0
Kaimyla Nolen - 14 24.6 4.6 2.6 1.9 1.6 0.2 1.9 3.8 5.2 37 2.2 8.0 45.3 33.3 58.3 -3.15 50.3 47.2
Emma Smith - 16 15.9 4.4 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.4 -46 -2.3 -18.9 44.8 36.4 44.0 2.75 51.4 51.7
Peyton Dolan - 14 11.4 4.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.6 4.4 1.1 9 0.5 4.5 34.4 29.4 50.0 -0.28 46.9 46.7
Hupp, Grace - 1 24.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 - - - 50.0 0.0 50.0 - 53.2 50.0
Williams, Claire - 1 23.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 - - - 33.3 33.3 50.0 - 51.5 50.0
Jones, Daijah - 1 18.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 - - - 66.7 0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Daijah Jones - 16 11.8 3.9 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 1.6 3.6 2.9 -41 -2.0 -19.7 38.6 0.0 61.3 -1.15 44.6 38.6
Addison Price - 7 6.4 3.3 1.7 0.7 1.3 0.0 1.1 3.4 2.4 3 0.3 5.8 41.7 22.2 50.0 -0.08 46.2 45.8
Havyn Green - 8 7.4 3.2 2.8 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.6 -24 -2.4 -97.1 41.7 0.0 75.0 0.01 47.2 41.7
Payton Dolan - 1 7.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 -1.0 3 3.0 24.0 25.0 25.0 0 -0.08 37.5 37.5
Chassity McCammon - 15 5.8 2.1 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.5 21 1.2 27.4 44.8 0 54.5 0.23 47.3 44.8
Ford, Terryn - 1 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Jones, Mattie - 1 8.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 - - - 0.0 0 100.0 - 53.2 0.0
Terryn Ford - 7 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.6 1 0.1 5.9 50.0 0.0 70.0 0.28 65.5 50.0
Annie Sale - 4 3.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.5 5 1.0 122.4 100.0 0 75.0 0.24 90.6 100.0
Mattie Jones - 13 8.0 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 -29 -1.7 -41.5 16.7 9.1 66.7 1.64 26.6 19.4
Kaelyn Stager - 4 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 -9 -2.2 -106.9 100.0 0 0 -0.32 100.0 100.0
MyLeia Campbell - 7 5.0 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 -1 -0.1 -3.6 0.0 0 50.0 0.17 17.4 0.0
Avery Forrester - 2 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 -1 -1.0 -11.9 0.0 0.0 0 -0.32 0.0 0.0
Price, Addison - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG