Webster Gorloks
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1025 (#186) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1045 (#170) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1023 (#170) | HCA +58 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.1 (#145) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.4 (#167) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.527 (#193) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.558 (#197) | AdjNet +2.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.557 (#197) | AdjNet +2.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.557 (#174) | AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 71.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.527 (#185) | AdjO 74.2 | AdjD 73.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.555 (#185) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.549 (#187) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1030 (#187) | RD 144 | GP 20 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-15 | vs | WashU | L | 59 - 60 |
| 2016-11-18 | @ | Ill. Wesleyan | L | 69 - 82 |
| 2016-11-19 | @ | Aurora | L | 73 - 87 |
| 2016-11-25 | vs | Wis.-La Crosse | L | 56 - 79 |
| 2016-11-26 | vs | Rust | W | 99 - 81 |
| 2016-11-30 | vs | Greenville | W | 133 - 120 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Principia | W | 65 - 62 |
| 2016-12-07 | @ | Millikin | W | 69 - 54 |
| 2016-12-10 | @ | Westminster (MO) | L | 94 - 98 |
| 2016-12-30 | @ | Morthland | - | Preview |
| 2017-01-04 | @ | Iowa Wesleyan | L | 84 - 85 |
| 2017-01-07 | vs | Spalding | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2017-01-09 | vs | Eureka | L | 78 - 86 |
| 2017-01-11 | @ | Blackburn | W | 88 - 85 |
| 2017-01-16 | @ | MacMurray | L | 59 - 68 |
| 2017-01-18 | @ | Fontbonne | W | 75 - 64 |
| 2017-01-21 | @ | Greenville | W | 121 - 115 |
| 2017-01-24 | vs | Principia | W | 70 - 68 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | Westminster (MO) | W | 79 - 68 |
| 2017-02-01 | @ | Eureka | W | 88 - 77 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Iowa Wesleyan | L | 70 - 71 |
| 2017-02-08 | @ | Spalding | L | 73 - 78 |
| 2017-02-11 | vs | Blackburn | L | 60 - 65 |
| 2017-02-15 | vs | MacMurray | W | 68 - 41 |
| 2017-02-18 | vs | Fontbonne | W | 93 - 70 |
| 2017-02-24 | @ | Westminster (MO) | L | 61 - 75 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.