🐻⬇️🏀

WashU

Also known as: WashU
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1112 (#58) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1262 (#23) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1211 (#21) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +33.7 (#4) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +29.5 (#73) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.911 (#235) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +30.6 More → 0.982 (#101) NetEff +30.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +38.5 More → 0.989 (#118) AdjNet +38.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +38.6 More → 0.990 (#121) AdjNet +38.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.4 | AdjD 53.3 More → 0.900 (#123) AdjO 77.4 | AdjD 53.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 46.1 More → 0.895 (#20) AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 46.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.953 (#25) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.949 (#22) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 20 More → 1346 (#17) RD 100 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Wis.-Whitewater L 58 - 63
2025-11-14 vs Benedictine (IL) W 94 - 53
2025-11-15 vs Elmhurst W 83 - 70
2025-11-19 vs Greenville W 91 - 32
2025-11-22 @ Millikin W 75 - 55
2025-11-29 @ DePauw W 70 - 52
2025-11-30 @ Ill. Wesleyan L 54 - 59
2025-12-29 vs Southern Va. W 83 - 66
2025-12-30 @ Chris. Newport W 72 - 53
2026-01-10 @ UChicago W 68 - 39
2026-01-16 @ Carnegie Mellon L 61 - 64
2026-01-18 @ CWRU W 66 - 52
2026-01-23 vs NYU L 64 - 77
2026-01-25 vs Brandeis W 62 - 49
2026-01-30 vs Emory W 67 - 56
2026-02-01 vs Rochester (NY) W 62 - 55
2026-02-06 @ Emory W 63 - 56
2026-02-08 @ Rochester (NY) W 33 - 21

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lexy Harris - 17 24.9 18.7 10.1 1.1 0.4 1.5 2.4 13.6 15.8 92 4.8 18.4 60.6 0.0 73.1 4.67 62.6 60.6
Sidney Rogers - 17 34.5 12.1 3.9 3.8 1.1 0.0 2.1 10.9 7.9 78 4.1 12.1 39.5 31.6 80.6 -0.76 51.3 47.8
Grace Corelli - 1 28.0 11.0 9.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 13.0 6.0 -6 -0.4 -1.7 30.8 14.3 66.7 -1.01 38.4 34.6
Alyssa Hughes - 17 30.5 10.4 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 1.1 9.6 4.5 63 3.3 13.1 37.8 37.1 87.5 -1.41 51.7 49.7
Bridget Miller - 1 19.0 9.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 1.0 32 2.3 16.4 42.9 0.0 60.0 3.55 48.9 42.9
Jordan Rich - 15 30.4 8.5 5.7 2.1 1.7 0.9 2.0 7.7 9.1 142 8.4 24.9 40.9 34.0 55.2 3.64 49.7 48.3
Claire Groenewoud - 1 31.0 8.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 3.0 -38 -2.4 -9.7 18.2 40.0 100.0 0.07 33.7 27.3
Tia Poulakidas - 1 25.0 8.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 10.0 1.0 -17 -1.2 -5.8 30.0 0.0 50.0 -0.69 34.0 30.0
Catherine Goodwin - 17 26.5 7.6 3.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 2.2 7.1 5.6 108 5.7 24.1 40.8 28.0 66.7 1.44 47.5 43.8
Hazell Nickerson - 1 20.0 6.0 7.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 10.0 -39 -2.4 -15.7 33.3 0.0 100.0 -3.38 43.6 33.3
Amelia Rosin - 17 14.2 5.0 4.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.7 3.3 6.2 -21 -1.1 -8.3 58.9 0 73.1 -3.11 63.0 58.9
Franki Gomez - 1 23.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 -19 -1.2 -5.5 25.0 33.3 100.0 -0.02 51.2 37.5
Sydney Starks - 15 15.5 3.7 2.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.6 3.5 4.0 21 1.2 5.3 36.5 33.3 64.3 2.91 48.1 45.2
Hope Drake - 9 5.0 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.6 1.9 -36 -3.3 -206.7 43.5 55.6 100.0 -0.4 56.5 54.3
Annelise Dexter - 1 14.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -1.0 -33 -2.1 -10.3 50.0 0 0 -0.98 50.0 50.0
Deniz Alparslan - 1 12.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 25 1.6 10.9 50.0 0 0 1.78 50.0 50.0
Melis Alparslan - 1 21.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 -11 -0.7 -4.1 25.0 0.0 0 3.4 25.0 25.0
Molly Friesen - 10 3.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 -17 -1.4 -105.2 33.3 0.0 70.0 0.77 45.7 33.3
Ava Blagojevich - 16 11.2 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.6 16 0.9 11.1 28.6 14.3 75.0 2.53 33.6 30.4
Reid Seddelmeyer - 5 3.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 - - - 100.0 0 50.0 - 86.8 100.0
Maggie Helms - 7 2.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 - - - 42.9 0.0 0.0 - 38.1 42.9
Cecilia O'Grady - 8 2.1 0.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.2 -22 -2.2 -1123.4 28.6 0 50.0 0.21 34.2 28.6
Nailah McBeth - 12 13.1 0.8 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.7 2.6 3 0.2 6.0 20.0 0 66.7 0.12 23.5 20.0
Emilee Travnicek - 5 2.9 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.4 - - - 66.7 0 0.0 - 51.5 66.7
Tara Murphy - 5 2.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 - - - 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Alex Sullivan - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Macy Bacon - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17 1.1 11.4 0 0 0 4.82 0 0
Allison Dauer - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Juliet Schwartz - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Peyton Jones - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -17 -1.2 -84.8 0 0 0 0.67 0 0
Zoey Seymour - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25 2.8 80.6 0 0 0 1.51 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG