WashU
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1112 (#58) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1262 (#23) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1211 (#21) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +33.7 (#4) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +29.5 (#73) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.911 (#235) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.982 (#101) | NetEff +30.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.989 (#118) | AdjNet +38.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.990 (#121) | AdjNet +38.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.900 (#123) | AdjO 77.4 | AdjD 53.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.895 (#20) | AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 46.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.953 (#25) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.949 (#22) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1346 (#17) | RD 100 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Wis.-Whitewater | L | 58 - 63 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Benedictine (IL) | W | 94 - 53 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Elmhurst | W | 83 - 70 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Greenville | W | 91 - 32 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Millikin | W | 75 - 55 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | DePauw | W | 70 - 52 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ | Ill. Wesleyan | L | 54 - 59 |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Southern Va. | W | 83 - 66 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Chris. Newport | W | 72 - 53 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | UChicago | W | 68 - 39 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | Carnegie Mellon | L | 61 - 64 |
| 2026-01-18 | @ | CWRU | W | 66 - 52 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | NYU | L | 64 - 77 |
| 2026-01-25 | vs | Brandeis | W | 62 - 49 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Emory | W | 67 - 56 |
| 2026-02-01 | vs | Rochester (NY) | W | 62 - 55 |
| 2026-02-06 | @ | Emory | W | 63 - 56 |
| 2026-02-08 | @ | Rochester (NY) | W | 33 - 21 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexy Harris | - | 17 | 24.9 | 18.7 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 13.6 | 15.8 | 92 | 4.8 | 18.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 73.1 | 4.67 | 62.6 | 60.6 |
| Sidney Rogers | - | 17 | 34.5 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 78 | 4.1 | 12.1 | 39.5 | 31.6 | 80.6 | -0.76 | 51.3 | 47.8 |
| Grace Corelli | - | 1 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | -6 | -0.4 | -1.7 | 30.8 | 14.3 | 66.7 | -1.01 | 38.4 | 34.6 |
| Alyssa Hughes | - | 17 | 30.5 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 63 | 3.3 | 13.1 | 37.8 | 37.1 | 87.5 | -1.41 | 51.7 | 49.7 |
| Bridget Miller | - | 1 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 32 | 2.3 | 16.4 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 3.55 | 48.9 | 42.9 |
| Jordan Rich | - | 15 | 30.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 142 | 8.4 | 24.9 | 40.9 | 34.0 | 55.2 | 3.64 | 49.7 | 48.3 |
| Claire Groenewoud | - | 1 | 31.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | -38 | -2.4 | -9.7 | 18.2 | 40.0 | 100.0 | 0.07 | 33.7 | 27.3 |
| Tia Poulakidas | - | 1 | 25.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -17 | -1.2 | -5.8 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.69 | 34.0 | 30.0 |
| Catherine Goodwin | - | 17 | 26.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 108 | 5.7 | 24.1 | 40.8 | 28.0 | 66.7 | 1.44 | 47.5 | 43.8 |
| Hazell Nickerson | - | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -39 | -2.4 | -15.7 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -3.38 | 43.6 | 33.3 |
| Amelia Rosin | - | 17 | 14.2 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 6.2 | -21 | -1.1 | -8.3 | 58.9 | 0 | 73.1 | -3.11 | 63.0 | 58.9 |
| Franki Gomez | - | 1 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -19 | -1.2 | -5.5 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -0.02 | 51.2 | 37.5 |
| Sydney Starks | - | 15 | 15.5 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 21 | 1.2 | 5.3 | 36.5 | 33.3 | 64.3 | 2.91 | 48.1 | 45.2 |
| Hope Drake | - | 9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 | -36 | -3.3 | -206.7 | 43.5 | 55.6 | 100.0 | -0.4 | 56.5 | 54.3 |
| Annelise Dexter | - | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -33 | -2.1 | -10.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.98 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Deniz Alparslan | - | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 25 | 1.6 | 10.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.78 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Melis Alparslan | - | 1 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -11 | -0.7 | -4.1 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.4 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Molly Friesen | - | 10 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | -17 | -1.4 | -105.2 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 0.77 | 45.7 | 33.3 |
| Ava Blagojevich | - | 16 | 11.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 16 | 0.9 | 11.1 | 28.6 | 14.3 | 75.0 | 2.53 | 33.6 | 30.4 |
| Reid Seddelmeyer | - | 5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 86.8 | 100.0 |
| Maggie Helms | - | 7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 42.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 38.1 | 42.9 |
| Cecilia O'Grady | - | 8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | -22 | -2.2 | -1123.4 | 28.6 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.21 | 34.2 | 28.6 |
| Nailah McBeth | - | 12 | 13.1 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 20.0 | 0 | 66.7 | 0.12 | 23.5 | 20.0 |
| Emilee Travnicek | - | 5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 51.5 | 66.7 |
| Tara Murphy | - | 5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Alex Sullivan | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Macy Bacon | - | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17 | 1.1 | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.82 | 0 | 0 |
| Allison Dauer | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Juliet Schwartz | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Jones | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -17 | -1.2 | -84.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Zoey Seymour | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25 | 2.8 | 80.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.51 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG