🐻⬇️🏀

Walsh

Also known as: Walsh
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 973 (#341) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1001 (#282) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1003 (#356) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +6.7 (#109) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +6.3 (#259) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.240 (#474) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +3.6 More → 0.620 (#240) NetEff +3.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +1.4 More → 0.541 (#391) AdjNet +1.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +2.1 More → 0.561 (#384) AdjNet +2.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.4 | AdjD 63.0 More → 0.532 (#377) AdjO 64.4 | AdjD 63.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 60.3 More → 0.585 (#187) AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 60.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.605 (#257) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.604 (#263) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 23 More → 1052 (#191) RD 99 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-10 @ Kent St. L 55 - 79
2025-11-14 vs Davenport W 77 - 68
2025-11-15 vs Grand Valley St. L 44 - 69
2025-11-18 vs Bry. & Strat. (OH) USCAA W 107 - 60
2025-11-20 @ UIndy W 75 - 68
2025-11-22 vs Roosevelt L 60 - 61
2025-11-30 @ Slippery Rock W 67 - 61
2025-12-04 @ Lake Erie W 71 - 56
2025-12-06 vs Ohio Dominican W 66 - 52
2025-12-11 vs Findlay W 49 - 42
2025-12-13 @ Ursuline W 71 - 53
2025-12-15 @ Lake Superior St. L 59 - 65
2025-12-17 @ Saginaw Valley L 65 - 73
2026-01-03 @ Northwood L 62 - 76
2026-01-10 vs Ashland L 63 - 74
2026-01-17 vs Ky. Wesleyan W 64 - 38
2026-01-22 @ Tiffin W 67 - 61
2026-01-24 @ Malone L 60 - 70
2026-01-29 vs Thomas More L 46 - 66
2026-01-31 vs Hillsdale W 72 - 63
2026-02-05 vs Lake Erie W 88 - 44
2026-02-07 vs Northwood L 77 - 95

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kiley Dyrlund - 22 31.6 20.3 9.2 1.6 3.8 0.8 2.7 14.7 18.2 41 1.9 7.8 59.1 42.9 61.6 1.36 60.8 59.6
Sydney Ludvigsen - 22 33.9 11.2 4.6 2.0 2.0 0.1 3.3 9.4 7.2 -8 -0.3 -1.5 42.5 40.3 89.5 1.14 57.3 55.6
Carlota Lopez - 22 30.4 10.6 4.3 3.5 1.7 0.1 3.8 11.6 4.8 14 0.6 2.4 35.5 13.6 70.8 0.79 41.1 36.7
Emma Dretke - 22 28.9 7.0 4.9 2.2 1.2 0.6 1.3 6.3 8.3 -30 -1.3 -6.3 42.8 29.6 80.0 1.4 52.8 50.4
Sami Kim - 22 33.6 6.6 3.2 3.3 1.6 0.2 3.0 6.9 5.0 -12 -0.5 -2.1 34.4 26.4 81.8 -1.59 45.1 42.1
Rory O'Hara - 22 15.8 6.1 1.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 6.0 2.1 -30 -1.3 -11.6 35.6 30.9 84.6 -0.97 48.6 46.6
Mallory Oddo - 2 18.6 3.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 5.5 3.0 -9 -4.5 -16.5 27.3 0.0 0.0 -0.91 25.3 27.3
Qaizden Stephano - 5 9.8 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.2 - - - 50.0 0 33.3 - 48.6 50.0
Kenzie Kramer - 19 13.0 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.4 -14 -0.7 -9.8 28.6 20.7 25.0 -1.58 33.6 33.9
Maddie Cerovac - 15 10.2 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.3 -54 -3.6 -34.7 20.5 16.7 69.2 -4.27 31.3 24.4
Jennica Berens - 6 8.2 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.8 -15 -3.0 -37.4 25.0 25.0 0 0.79 29.2 29.2
Leah Major - 13 5.7 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.2 10 0.8 18.1 26.7 33.3 0 0.09 40.0 40.0
Layla Marshall - 4 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 -0.5 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG