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WPI

Model Outputs

2016-2017
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1105 (#118) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1161 (#71) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +58 elo More โ†’ 1057 (#124) HCA +58 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More โ†’ +9.6 (#81) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.3 More โ†’ +9.5 (#74) HCA +2.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.744 (#70) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +12.8 More โ†’ 0.813 (#66) AdjNet +12.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +12.9 More โ†’ 0.816 (#65) AdjNet +12.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 74.1 | AdjD 64.4 More โ†’ 0.707 (#63) AdjO 74.1 | AdjD 64.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 66.0 More โ†’ 0.633 (#89) AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 66.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.715 (#79) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.702 (#84) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 129 | GP 25 More โ†’ 1125 (#98) RD 129 | GP 25
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. More โ†’ Legacy estimate Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast.

2016-2017 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2016-11-15 vs Eastern Conn. St. W 76 - 62
2016-11-18 vs Salve Regina W 59 - 55
2016-11-19 vs DeSales W 73 - 70
2016-11-22 @ Worcester St. W 91 - 54
2016-11-29 @ Tufts L 71 - 75
2016-12-01 @ Framingham St. W 69 - 52
2016-12-03 @ Fitchburg St. L 61 - 74
2016-12-06 vs MCLA W 105 - 68
2016-12-10 @ Salem St. W 87 - 62
2016-12-28 vs Keene St. W 72 - 67
2016-12-30 vs Eastern Nazarene W 88 - 72
2017-01-04 vs Springfield L 63 - 71
2017-01-07 @ MIT L 63 - 75
2017-01-11 @ Babson L 59 - 65
2017-01-14 vs Emerson W 86 - 64
2017-01-18 @ Clark (MA) W 78 - 58
2017-01-21 vs Wheaton (MA) W 87 - 84
2017-01-25 vs Coast Guard W 84 - 70
2017-01-28 @ Springfield L 70 - 73
2017-02-01 @ Emerson W 62 - 61
2017-02-04 vs Babson L 45 - 62
2017-02-08 vs MIT L 66 - 68
2017-02-11 @ Coast Guard W 71 - 67
2017-02-15 @ Wheaton (MA) W 79 - 67
2017-02-18 vs Clark (MA) W 75 - 65
2017-02-25 vs MIT L 61 - 63

2016-2017 Roster

No roster data available for this season.