🐻⬇️🏀

Virginia Union

Also known as: Virginia Union
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1034 (#159) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1021 (#253) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1029 (#199) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -1.2 (#184) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +3.4 (#308) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.792 (#250) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +9.9 More → 0.809 (#179) NetEff +9.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.4 More → 0.596 (#358) AdjNet +3.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +3.6 More → 0.604 (#364) AdjNet +3.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 61.4 More → 0.549 (#363) AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 61.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 56.9 More → 0.585 (#188) AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 56.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.577 (#283) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.590 (#271) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 103 | GP 20 More → 1051 (#199) RD 103 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-17 @ Chowan L 58 - 66
2025-11-19 vs Ferrum W 63 - 55
2025-11-22 @ Shepherd W 69 - 50
2025-11-26 vs Dist. Columbia W 54 - 28
2025-12-03 vs Johnson C. Smith W 53 - 49
2025-12-06 vs UNC Pembroke W 52 - 49
2025-12-13 vs Livingstone W 75 - 49
2025-12-15 @ Virginia-Lynchburg W 88 - 48
2025-12-21 vs Shaw L 73 - 79
2026-01-12 @ Claflin W 56 - 55
2026-01-14 @ Johnson C. Smith W 43 - 42
2026-01-17 vs Virginia St. L 66 - 68
2026-01-21 @ Bluefield St. W 75 - 69
2026-01-24 vs Bowie St. L 48 - 61
2026-01-29 vs Elizabeth City St. W 70 - 32
2026-01-31 @ Lincoln (PA) W 68 - 53
2026-02-04 vs Winston-Salem L 47 - 55
2026-02-07 @ Elizabeth City St. W 72 - 59

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Bruni Martinez - 17 30.3 14.5 9.8 1.6 2.5 1.0 2.1 13.3 14.0 72 4.8 37.1 47.3 0.0 68.8 0.98 50.0 47.3
Maya Robinson - 17 27.5 10.1 3.4 2.4 1.6 0.1 3.1 8.2 6.2 29 2.4 21.9 45.7 34.1 69.0 0.28 54.3 51.1
Serenity Johnson - 14 21.3 8.2 1.6 1.1 1.8 0.1 1.9 8.9 2.1 -20 -1.5 -37.2 30.6 29.7 70.8 -0.05 42.7 39.5
De'aisjah Somerville - 15 25.5 8.0 3.8 1.9 1.3 0.4 2.5 9.8 3.1 -12 -0.9 -24.0 31.3 29.0 67.9 -0.18 37.7 34.4
Karimah Nix - 17 21.3 7.4 3.5 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.5 5.7 5.4 30 2.0 17.2 50.5 0.0 75.7 2.49 55.6 50.5
Ashley Gonzalez - 15 17.3 5.4 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 1.5 4.0 4.7 36 3.0 17.8 43.3 45.0 61.1 0.75 59.6 58.3
Hailey Blackwell - 16 30.9 4.9 4.4 2.9 2.0 0.1 1.9 4.2 8.1 39 2.6 19.2 35.3 40.7 80.0 2.22 50.0 43.4
Ramsey Cureton - 17 11.1 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.7 12 0.7 8.9 31.0 28.6 88.9 1.94 45.7 40.5
Nakeria Scales - 11 5.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.3 -2 -0.2 -5.7 47.1 0 57.1 -0.24 51.8 47.1
Tanila Marshall - 11 9.9 2.0 3.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.8 0 0.0 0.0 62.5 0 100.0 0.01 65.2 62.5
Asha Shareef - 8 6.4 2.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 1.4 -44 -4.9 -122.2 41.2 0.0 40.0 0.14 41.7 41.2
Tanahia Hairston - 7 6.2 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.4 - - - 22.2 12.5 0 - 25.0 25.0
Kenedee Matthews - 4 6.7 1.2 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 - - - 25.0 0.0 75.0 - 43.4 25.0
Nashelle Ponds - 8 5.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.5 -4 -0.4 -6.9 25.0 25.0 75.0 -1.63 41.0 31.2
Robin Stevenson - 6 3.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.2 - - - 25.0 0.0 33.3 - 26.8 25.0
Brianna Johnson - 9 7.7 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 1.6 -0.2 -9 -1.3 -15.8 14.3 20.0 0 0.65 17.9 17.9

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG