Virginia Union
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1034 (#159) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1021 (#253) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1029 (#199) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.2 (#184) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.4 (#308) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.792 (#250) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.809 (#179) | NetEff +9.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.596 (#358) | AdjNet +3.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.604 (#364) | AdjNet +3.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.549 (#363) | AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 61.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.585 (#188) | AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 56.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.577 (#283) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.590 (#271) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1051 (#199) | RD 103 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | @ | Chowan | L | 58 - 66 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Ferrum | W | 63 - 55 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Shepherd | W | 69 - 50 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Dist. Columbia | W | 54 - 28 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Johnson C. Smith | W | 53 - 49 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | UNC Pembroke | W | 52 - 49 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Livingstone | W | 75 - 49 |
| 2025-12-15 | @ | Virginia-Lynchburg | W | 88 - 48 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | Shaw | L | 73 - 79 |
| 2026-01-12 | @ | Claflin | W | 56 - 55 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Johnson C. Smith | W | 43 - 42 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Virginia St. | L | 66 - 68 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Bluefield St. | W | 75 - 69 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Bowie St. | L | 48 - 61 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Elizabeth City St. | W | 70 - 32 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Lincoln (PA) | W | 68 - 53 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Winston-Salem | L | 47 - 55 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Elizabeth City St. | W | 72 - 59 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruni Martinez | - | 17 | 30.3 | 14.5 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 72 | 4.8 | 37.1 | 47.3 | 0.0 | 68.8 | 0.98 | 50.0 | 47.3 |
| Maya Robinson | - | 17 | 27.5 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 29 | 2.4 | 21.9 | 45.7 | 34.1 | 69.0 | 0.28 | 54.3 | 51.1 |
| Serenity Johnson | - | 14 | 21.3 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 2.1 | -20 | -1.5 | -37.2 | 30.6 | 29.7 | 70.8 | -0.05 | 42.7 | 39.5 |
| De'aisjah Somerville | - | 15 | 25.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 9.8 | 3.1 | -12 | -0.9 | -24.0 | 31.3 | 29.0 | 67.9 | -0.18 | 37.7 | 34.4 |
| Karimah Nix | - | 17 | 21.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 30 | 2.0 | 17.2 | 50.5 | 0.0 | 75.7 | 2.49 | 55.6 | 50.5 |
| Ashley Gonzalez | - | 15 | 17.3 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 36 | 3.0 | 17.8 | 43.3 | 45.0 | 61.1 | 0.75 | 59.6 | 58.3 |
| Hailey Blackwell | - | 16 | 30.9 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 39 | 2.6 | 19.2 | 35.3 | 40.7 | 80.0 | 2.22 | 50.0 | 43.4 |
| Ramsey Cureton | - | 17 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 12 | 0.7 | 8.9 | 31.0 | 28.6 | 88.9 | 1.94 | 45.7 | 40.5 |
| Nakeria Scales | - | 11 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | -2 | -0.2 | -5.7 | 47.1 | 0 | 57.1 | -0.24 | 51.8 | 47.1 |
| Tanila Marshall | - | 11 | 9.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.5 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.01 | 65.2 | 62.5 |
| Asha Shareef | - | 8 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | -44 | -4.9 | -122.2 | 41.2 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 0.14 | 41.7 | 41.2 |
| Tanahia Hairston | - | 7 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | - | - | - | 22.2 | 12.5 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Kenedee Matthews | - | 4 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 43.4 | 25.0 |
| Nashelle Ponds | - | 8 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -4 | -0.4 | -6.9 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 75.0 | -1.63 | 41.0 | 31.2 |
| Robin Stevenson | - | 6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | - | 26.8 | 25.0 |
| Brianna Johnson | - | 9 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | -0.2 | -9 | -1.3 | -15.8 | 14.3 | 20.0 | 0 | 0.65 | 17.9 | 17.9 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG