Virginia Union
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1151 (#61) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1172 (#50) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1079 (#64) | HCA +68 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.3 (#161) | HCA +2.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.8 (#152) | HCA +2.8 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.648 (#82) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.685 (#132) | AdjNet +6.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.688 (#133) | AdjNet +6.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.605 (#135) | AdjO 77.8 | AdjD 73.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.578 (#95) | AdjO 77.1 | AdjD 73.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.648 (#109) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.644 (#105) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1165 (#51) | RD 127 | GP 29 |
2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-11 | @ | West Virginia St. | W | 86 - 83 |
| 2016-11-12 | @ | UVA Wise | W | 88 - 77 |
| 2016-11-16 | @ | Cheyney | W | 90 - 63 |
| 2016-11-19 | vs | Post | W | 65 - 52 |
| 2016-11-20 | vs | Washington Adventist | L | 77 - 78 |
| 2016-11-26 | @ | Morehouse | L | 77 - 101 |
| 2016-11-28 | @ | Clayton St. | W | 71 - 62 |
| 2016-11-30 | @ | Dist. Columbia | W | 71 - 69 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Winston-Salem | L | 73 - 87 |
| 2016-12-10 | vs | Shaw | W | 77 - 75 |
| 2016-12-12 | vs | Concord | W | 95 - 78 |
| 2016-12-15 | vs | Wheeling | L | 63 - 76 |
| 2017-01-02 | vs | Winston-Salem | W | 83 - 82 |
| 2017-01-05 | @ | Shaw | W | 74 - 72 |
| 2017-01-07 | vs | Fayetteville St. | W | 74 - 73 |
| 2017-01-09 | @ | Saint Augustine's | W | 83 - 75 |
| 2017-01-11 | vs | Livingstone | W | 86 - 78 |
| 2017-01-15 | vs | Virginia St. | L | 59 - 74 |
| 2017-01-18 | @ | Bowie St. | W | 70 - 69 |
| 2017-01-21 | vs | Lincoln (PA) | W | 77 - 75 |
| 2017-01-25 | @ | Elizabeth City St. | W | 82 - 69 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | Chowan | W | 70 - 69 |
| 2017-02-01 | vs | Johnson C. Smith | W | 71 - 59 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Virginia St. | W | 90 - 71 |
| 2017-02-08 | vs | Bowie St. | W | 100 - 67 |
| 2017-02-11 | @ | Lincoln (PA) | W | 83 - 64 |
| 2017-02-15 | vs | Elizabeth City St. | W | 69 - 61 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Chowan | L | 84 - 88 |
| 2017-02-23 | vs | Bowie St. | L | 78 - 84 |
| 2017-03-11 | @ | Shippensburg | L | 59 - 79 |
2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.