Virginia Union
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1089 (#58) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1261 (#13) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1173 (#24) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +12.5 (#71) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.6 (#114) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.686 (#227) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#16) | NetEff +69.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.775 (#250) | AdjNet +10.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.757 (#268) | AdjNet +9.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.643 (#280) | AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 64.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.739 (#46) | AdjO 70.1 | AdjD 58.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.819 (#57) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.819 (#41) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1238 (#30) | RD 111 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Millersville | L | 66 - 82 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Mansfield | W | 75 - 51 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | West Liberty | W | 94 - 88 |
| 2025-11-24 | @ | Concord | W | 65 - 58 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Dist. Columbia | W | 73 - 64 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Livingstone | W | 79 - 49 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Shepherd | W | 68 - 49 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Fayetteville St. | W | 93 - 88 |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | Virgin Islands | W | 60 - 56 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Johnson C. Smith | W | 88 - 36 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | St. Thomas Aquinas | W | 74 - 64 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Shaw | W | 75 - 61 |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Fayetteville St. | L | 62 - 75 |
| 2026-01-12 | @ | Claflin | W | 66 - 64 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Johnson C. Smith | W | 75 - 73 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Virginia St. | W | 65 - 37 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Bluefield St. | L | 57 - 75 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Bowie St. | W | 83 - 44 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Elizabeth City St. | W | 69 - 63 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Lincoln (PA) | W | 65 - 47 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Winston-Salem | W | 76 - 49 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Elizabeth City St. | W | 61 - 43 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Cannedy | - | 1 | 51.0 | 25.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 77 | 4.1 | 21.7 | 53.3 | 60.0 | 100.0 | 1.61 | 76.6 | 73.3 |
| Romeo Aquino | - | 1 | 47.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 17.0 | 11 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 60.0 | 0 | 52.9 | -1.23 | 60.1 | 60.0 |
| Bobby Gardner | - | 15 | 31.4 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 110 | 7.9 | 46.7 | 37.1 | 29.7 | 77.1 | 2.34 | 44.9 | 40.1 |
| Khyelle Ingram | - | 1 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 16 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 27.3 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.15 | 44.0 | 27.3 |
| Malachi Dark | - | 20 | 23.1 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 83 | 4.9 | 52.3 | 63.5 | 0 | 62.3 | -0.7 | 64.9 | 63.5 |
| Lance Gill | - | 1 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | -45 | -2.2 | -14.7 | 55.6 | 33.3 | 0 | -3.98 | 61.1 | 61.1 |
| Tyre Boykin | - | 1 | 34.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 31 | 1.6 | 9.5 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 62.5 | -0.44 | 47.3 | 33.3 |
| Tahj Harding | - | 17 | 17.6 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 101 | 6.7 | 48.1 | 37.5 | 35.1 | 78.6 | 1.4 | 48.1 | 46.4 |
| Noah Richardson-Keyes | - | 20 | 21.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 160 | 10.0 | 61.4 | 52.2 | 41.2 | 75.0 | 1.72 | 57.7 | 54.9 |
| Abou Camara | - | 1 | 29.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 35 | 1.8 | 12.1 | 75.0 | 0 | 25.0 | 4.04 | 60.8 | 75.0 |
| Elijah Scranton | - | 14 | 25.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 75 | 5.4 | 66.7 | 40.6 | 50.0 | 55.7 | 1.36 | 48.5 | 41.4 |
| O'Maundre Harris | - | 14 | 17.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 62 | 4.4 | 62.9 | 43.8 | 18.8 | 81.0 | 0.14 | 51.1 | 45.9 |
| Darius Boben | - | 1 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 28 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -2.12 | 52.1 | 50.0 |
| Travis Vaughn | - | 15 | 28.3 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 126 | 9.0 | 62.9 | 36.6 | 35.9 | 81.2 | 2.83 | 50.6 | 46.5 |
| Ibrahim Kourouma | - | 1 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -10 | -0.6 | -5.7 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | -1.97 | 56.3 | 62.5 |
| Nehemiah Johnson | - | 20 | 15.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 94 | 5.5 | 42.2 | 69.5 | 0.0 | 46.7 | 2.26 | 66.5 | 69.5 |
| Demetri Patterson | - | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 17 | 0.9 | 15.5 | 50.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.34 | 69.4 | 50.0 |
| Joshua Caine | - | 19 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 42 | 2.8 | 55.3 | 49.0 | 0 | 70.0 | 1.01 | 51.5 | 49.0 |
| Jeremiah Morris | - | 11 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 103 | 6.9 | 81.8 | 48.0 | 0 | 28.6 | 2.05 | 46.3 | 48.0 |
| Jamari Garnett | - | 8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 0.43 | 54.7 | 42.9 |
| William Tchatchoua | - | 10 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.0 | 28.7 | 31.6 | 14.3 | 33.3 | -0.22 | 34.4 | 34.2 |
| Tyler Bell | - | 11 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 34 | 2.1 | 39.2 | 54.5 | 0 | 66.7 | -0.7 | 56.8 | 54.5 |
| Jaylen Jones | - | 7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 24 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0.56 | 73.5 | 70.0 |
| Samuel Newkirk | - | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33 | 3.0 | 665.5 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.36 | 113.6 | 0 |
| Paul Mason | - | 14 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 18 | 2.0 | 101.4 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.14 | 59.7 | 60.0 |
| Farell Crowell | - | 16 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 8 | 0.7 | 16.1 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 55.6 | 0.01 | 39.4 | 30.0 |
| Bryson Cowan | - | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38 | 2.7 | 600.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Staton-Ray | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 18 | 1.5 | 87.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.77 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Gill | - | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG