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Virginia St.

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
Also known as: Virginia St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1107 (#84) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1137 (#70) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1095 (#77) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +1.4 (#155) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +4.2 (#294) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.703 (#290) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +2.0 More → 0.571 (#254) NetEff +2.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +5.5 More → 0.654 (#335) AdjNet +5.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +7.2 More → 0.701 (#328) AdjNet +7.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.6 | AdjD 59.7 More → 0.609 (#320) AdjO 64.6 | AdjD 59.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 61.1 More → 0.583 (#190) AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 61.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.600 (#264) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.614 (#256) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 107 | GP 21 More → 1154 (#72) RD 107 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-09 @ Norfolk St. L 53 - 77
2025-11-15 vs West Virginia St. W 83 - 68
2025-11-16 vs Indiana (PA) L 32 - 70
2025-11-19 @ Charleston (WV) L 62 - 66
2025-11-22 @ Dist. Columbia W 55 - 52
2025-11-29 vs Lander W 67 - 54
2025-11-30 vs Shaw W 67 - 66
2025-12-06 @ Chowan W 73 - 71
2025-12-11 vs Fayetteville St. W 55 - 46
2025-12-13 vs Claflin L 49 - 64
2025-12-16 vs Shaw W 63 - 45
2026-01-03 vs Emory & Henry W 74 - 53
2026-01-10 @ Johnson C. Smith W 69 - 55
2026-01-13 @ Winston-Salem L 52 - 67
2026-01-17 @ Virginia Union W 68 - 66
2026-01-21 vs Bowie St. W 74 - 55
2026-01-24 @ Elizabeth City St. W 58 - 45
2026-01-28 vs Lincoln (PA) W 54 - 49
2026-01-31 vs Bluefield St. L 87 - 91
2026-02-07 @ Lincoln (PA) W 81 - 71

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kendahl Spearman - 19 22.6 12.9 4.2 1.2 1.3 0.1 2.3 11.6 5.8 56 2.9 14.4 36.7 27.5 79.5 5.01 47.4 39.8
Nhaikyia Smith - 1 40.0 12.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 17.0 38 1.7 18.2 37.5 0.0 100.0 2.68 56.4 37.5
Dashani Coleman - 1 31.0 11.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 15.0 -1.0 2 0.4 4.8 33.3 0.0 33.3 -0.06 33.7 33.3
Kristian Harris - 1 35.0 9.0 8.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 11.0 -126 -7.4 -40.2 33.3 50.0 100.0 -0.93 45.5 38.9
Sydney Roberts - 19 24.8 8.9 2.8 1.9 1.7 0.1 2.5 6.4 6.5 12 0.6 3.5 39.7 32.1 77.4 -0.81 53.8 43.4
Maya Ellis - 16 22.5 8.8 4.6 0.5 1.5 0.2 1.6 7.1 6.9 -23 -1.4 -5.2 37.2 36.6 70.5 0.25 53.3 48.7
Aiyana Ellis - 1 35.0 8.0 9.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 10.0 9.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 66.7 - 31.6 20.0
Calista Gaymon - 1 23.0 7.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 9.0 -1.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 50.0 - 35.4 33.3
Skylar White - 19 25.4 6.7 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.1 2.4 6.4 4.3 -27 -1.4 -7.9 38.5 30.0 66.7 -4.18 47.4 44.7
Michaela Lane - 19 21.7 6.2 5.5 1.0 0.9 1.9 2.3 7.0 6.3 -40 -2.2 -12.6 34.6 0 52.0 -3.01 38.1 34.6
Mekayla Furman - 9 16.8 6.1 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.1 7.7 0.9 3 0.3 7.4 33.3 31.8 100.0 -0.2 39.4 38.4
Tamia Darden - 11 12.2 5.3 3.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 4.0 4.5 -17 -1.3 -14.5 56.8 33.3 54.5 -1.77 59.4 59.1
Kiara Beal - 13 16.4 5.0 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.5 4.8 2.4 -56 -4.3 -23.5 42.9 18.2 60.0 -0.89 46.7 44.4
Gabrielle Gerald - 17 14.1 4.2 4.2 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 3.8 4.6 48 2.8 23.3 43.8 0.0 43.2 0.69 44.8 43.8
Shayla Wyatt - 19 24.3 3.9 3.5 0.8 1.7 0.2 1.7 3.9 4.5 8 0.4 2.1 38.7 5.6 59.3 1.07 43.2 39.3
Alexis Blake - 14 16.3 3.6 2.5 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.6 27 1.7 19.0 32.1 0 48.4 -0.91 36.6 32.1
Shaima James Lewis - 1 12.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 3.0 135 6.1 40.2 25.0 0.0 50.0 1.64 30.7 25.0
Savana Goodson - 14 8.4 2.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 2.9 0.8 -37 -2.5 -52.5 22.5 0.0 66.7 -1.96 30.0 22.5
Saniya Green - 3 5.9 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 1.7 2.0 -10 -2.0 -30.1 40.0 33.3 50.0 0.21 51.0 50.0
Maya Johnson - 1 24.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 42 2.1 24.0 25.0 0.0 0 2.63 25.0 25.0
Jada Coleman - 7 6.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 -19 -2.7 -65.2 28.6 0.0 75.0 -0.91 40.0 28.6
Caityln Rodriguez - 4 7.0 0.5 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 1.8 -0.2 -18 -3.6 -248.3 14.3 0.0 0 0.32 14.3 14.3
Zofia Enriquez - 2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG