Virginia St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1112 (#88) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1139 (#76) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1095 (#77) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.6 (#214) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.2 (#294) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.703 (#290) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.571 (#254) | NetEff +2.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.654 (#335) | AdjNet +5.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.701 (#328) | AdjNet +7.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.609 (#320) | AdjO 64.6 | AdjD 59.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.583 (#190) | AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 61.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.600 (#265) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.614 (#257) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1161 (#66) | RD 107 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | @ | Norfolk St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | West Virginia St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Indiana (PA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Charleston (WV) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Dist. Columbia | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Lander | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Shaw | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Chowan | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | Fayetteville St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Claflin | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Shaw | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Emory & Henry | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Johnson C. Smith | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Winston-Salem | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Virginia Union | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Bowie St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Elizabeth City St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Lincoln (PA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Bluefield St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Lincoln (PA) | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendahl Spearman | - | 18 | 22.6 | 12.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 56 | 2.9 | 14.4 | 36.8 | 29.5 | 79.1 | 3.74 | 47.8 | 40.0 |
| Nhaikyia Smith | - | 1 | 40.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 38 | 1.7 | 18.2 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -3.34 | 56.4 | 37.5 |
| Dashani Coleman | - | 1 | 31.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 33.3 | -2.26 | 33.7 | 33.3 |
| Sydney Roberts | - | 18 | 25.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 12 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 39.3 | 29.6 | 77.5 | 2.45 | 53.2 | 42.7 |
| Kristian Harris | - | 1 | 35.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -126 | -7.4 | -40.2 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 100.0 | -0.11 | 45.5 | 38.9 |
| Maya Ellis | - | 15 | 22.4 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | -23 | -1.4 | -5.2 | 37.6 | 36.9 | 76.3 | -1.54 | 54.8 | 49.5 |
| Aiyana Ellis | - | 1 | 35.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | - | - | - | 20.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 0.78 | 31.6 | 20.0 |
| Calista Gaymon | - | 1 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.27 | 35.4 | 33.3 |
| Skylar White | - | 18 | 25.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 4.4 | -27 | -1.4 | -7.9 | 37.9 | 29.8 | 68.0 | -2.4 | 46.9 | 44.0 |
| Michaela Lane | - | 18 | 21.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 6.4 | -40 | -2.2 | -12.6 | 35.1 | 0 | 50.0 | -2.06 | 38.0 | 35.1 |
| Mekayla Furman | - | 9 | 16.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 3 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 33.3 | 31.8 | 100.0 | 1.69 | 39.4 | 38.4 |
| Kiara Beal | - | 12 | 15.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | -56 | -4.3 | -23.5 | 44.3 | 20.0 | 60.0 | -3.41 | 48.1 | 45.9 |
| Tamia Darden | - | 11 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | -17 | -1.3 | -14.5 | 56.8 | 33.3 | 54.5 | -2.29 | 59.4 | 59.1 |
| Gabrielle Gerald | - | 16 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 48 | 2.8 | 23.3 | 44.4 | 0.0 | 43.2 | 3.11 | 45.4 | 44.4 |
| Shayla Wyatt | - | 18 | 24.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 8 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 39.4 | 5.9 | 56.0 | 0.32 | 43.3 | 40.1 |
| Alexis Blake | - | 14 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 27 | 1.7 | 19.0 | 32.1 | 0 | 48.4 | 1.03 | 36.6 | 32.1 |
| Shaima James Lewis | - | 1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 135 | 6.1 | 40.2 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -4.09 | 30.7 | 25.0 |
| Savana Goodson | - | 13 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | -37 | -2.5 | -52.5 | 21.1 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -3.16 | 29.1 | 21.1 |
| Saniya Green | - | 3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -10 | -2.0 | -30.1 | 40.0 | 33.3 | 50.0 | -3.22 | 51.0 | 50.0 |
| Maya Johnson | - | 1 | 24.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 42 | 2.1 | 24.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Jada Coleman | - | 6 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -19 | -2.7 | -65.2 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.78 | 38.1 | 28.6 |
| Caityln Rodriguez | - | 3 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -0.3 | -18 | -3.6 | -248.3 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.19 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| Zofia Enriquez | - | 2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG