Villanova
Model Outputs
1998-1999
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1249 (#41) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1167 (#51) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1031 (#107) | HCA +109 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +10.5 (#45) | HCA +3.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +10.9 (#46) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.657 (#86) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.879 (#39) | AdjNet +17.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.882 (#39) | AdjNet +17.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.710 (#42) | AdjO 76.3 | AdjD 66.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.646 (#47) | AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 68.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.745 (#44) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.733 (#46) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1197 (#43) | RD 111 | GP 31 |
1999 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998-11-16 | vs | George Mason | W | 86 - 76 |
| 1998-11-19 | N | Nebraska | W | 75 - 60 |
| 1998-11-22 | N | Arkansas | W | 76 - 63 |
| 1998-11-27 | vs | Mount St. Mary's | W | 71 - 68 |
| 1998-12-01 | vs | Saint Joseph's | W | 61 - 49 |
| 1998-12-05 | @ | Penn State | L | 53 - 70 |
| 1998-12-09 | @ | Seton Hall | L | 55 - 68 |
| 1998-12-12 | vs | West Virginia | W | 79 - 75 |
| 1998-12-15 | vs | Massachusetts | W | 66 - 55 |
| 1998-12-22 | vs | Rider | W | 86 - 73 |
| 1998-12-27 | vs | Howard | W | 87 - 49 |
| 1998-12-30 | @ | Connecticut | L | 76 - 100 |
| 1999-01-05 | vs | Syracuse | L | 52 - 74 |
| 1999-01-07 | @ | Notre Dame | W | 93 - 62 |
| 1999-01-09 | @ | Rutgers | L | 87 - 97 |
| 1999-01-13 | vs | Boston College | W | 76 - 67 |
| 1999-01-16 | vs | Notre Dame | W | 85 - 58 |
| 1999-01-19 | vs | Pittsburgh | W | 86 - 65 |
| 1999-01-23 | @ | West Virginia | W | 73 - 62 |
| 1999-01-26 | @ | Providence | L | 72 - 85 |
| 1999-01-30 | vs | Georgetown | W | 93 - 90 |
| 1999-02-03 | vs | Rutgers | W | 84 - 78 |
| 1999-02-06 | @ | Syracuse | W | 75 - 60 |
| 1999-02-13 | @ | St. John's (NY) | L | 75 - 82 |
| 1999-02-16 | @ | Miami (FL) | L | 82 - 103 |
| 1999-02-20 | vs | Providence | L | 84 - 90 |
| 1999-02-23 | vs | Pennsylvania | W | 74 - 63 |
| 1999-02-27 | vs | St. John's (NY) | W | 66 - 60 |
| 1999-03-03 | N | West Virginia | W | 73 - 61 |
| 1999-03-04 | N | Syracuse | L | 62 - 70 |
| 1999-03-12 | N | Mississippi | L | 70 - 72 |
1999 Roster
No roster data available for this season.