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Villa Maria

Season: 2026 2024 2022 2021 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Villa Maria
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 954 (#333) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 985 (#377) HCA +95 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -37.9 (#590) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.000 (#755) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -39.5 More → 0.010 (#739) AdjNet -39.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -39.3 More → 0.008 (#742) AdjNet -39.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 97.4 More → 0.054 (#745) AdjO 65.8 | AdjD 97.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.3 | AdjD 81.2 More → 0.328 (#520) AdjO 73.3 | AdjD 81.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.118 (#573) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.148 (#569) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 930 (#305) RD 350 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-29 @ Malone L 55 - 111

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Joey DeGeorge - 1 26.6 19.0 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 10.0 18.0 -42 -1.9 -7.9 70.0 66.7 75.0 -0.02 80.8 80.0
Nick Wigton - 1 9.3 14.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 7.0 -5 -0.6 -6.4 62.5 66.7 0 0.67 87.5 87.5
Nic Williams - 1 20.9 14.0 7.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 12.0 16.0 -23 -1.0 -4.4 50.0 40.0 0 -0.68 58.3 58.3
Emmanuel Oladeru - 1 19.1 12.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 15.0 -55 -2.5 -15.7 100.0 0 50.0 -1.47 88.8 100.0
Jacob Ernst - 1 21.1 11.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 11.0 -52 -2.5 -22.5 66.7 0 75.0 -2.42 70.9 66.7
Josiah Pierre - 1 23.3 10.0 7.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 10.0 8.0 -60 -2.7 -12.4 40.0 0.0 100.0 -0.56 46.0 40.0
Tate Aljancic - 1 16.7 9.0 13.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 18.0 -56 -2.9 -21.8 66.7 0 50.0 -3.18 65.4 66.7
Kellen Leake - 1 23.2 7.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 9.0 1.0 -23 -1.6 -26.6 33.3 20.0 0 -0.32 38.9 38.9
Austin Niekamp - 1 9.8 5.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 6 0.5 6.2 33.3 0 75.0 -0.8 52.5 33.3
Crew Cain - 1 13.6 4.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 -12 -0.6 -6.1 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.36 34.0 40.0
DeLan Davis - 1 5.3 4.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 8 0.5 14.3 0 0 100.0 0.77 113.6 0
Logan Forbes - 1 11.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 -24 -1.1 -10.4 33.3 0 0 -0.53 33.3 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG