Valparaiso Beacons - 2026-2027

2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)

65.0

PPG

71.8

Opp

-6.8

Margin

37.1%

FG%

23.6%

3P%

53.5%

FT%

38.8

RPG

13.8

APG

16.8

TO

74.3

Est. poss./game

56.8

Adj PPG

69.7

Adj Opp PPG

#342

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 645 (returning production + recruiting): last season 779, returning -87, transfers -46, freshmen +0 More →	613 (#357)	Preseason prior 645 (returning production + recruiting): last season 779, returning -87, transfers -46, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +169 elo More →	744 (#356)	HCA +169 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +169 elo More →	748 (#356)	HCA +169 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +1.7 More →	-17.7 (#329)	HCA +1.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +1.6 More →	-17.6 (#328)	HCA +1.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.036 (#331)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -18.7 More →	0.125 (#338)	AdjNet -18.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -19.1 More →	0.119 (#341)	AdjNet -19.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 56.8 \| AdjD 69.7 More →	0.184 (#342)	AdjO 56.8 \| AdjD 69.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 56.9 \| AdjD 69.6 More →	0.187 (#342)	AdjO 56.9 \| AdjD 69.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.149 (#341)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.149 (#341)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 179 \| GP 3 More →	709 (#357)	RD 179 \| GP 3
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More →	0.099 (#349)	Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

Rank through the season

League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.

Recency Ensemble Log Adjusted Elo Points Off/Def Recency

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2026-11-03	@	Michigan State Spartans	L	44 - 98
2026-11-07	vs	Detroit Mercy Titans	L	63 - 67
2026-11-10	vs	Culver Stockton Wildcats	W	89 - 47
2026-11-13	@	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons	L	64 - 75
2026-11-15	@	Toledo Rockets	-	Preview
2026-11-20	vs	South Dakota Coyotes	-	Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Osadebamwen Igbinedion Omoruyi	F	4	19.8	10.2	4.2	0.5	0.0	0.5	0.8	8.0	6.8	11	4	2.8	5.6	56.2	0	50.0	0.36	56.3	56.2
Hillary Offing	F	3	14.3	9.3	2.3	0.0	1.0	0.3	1.0	6.0	6.0	-31	3	-10.3	-28.7	55.6	0	80.0	-2.97	62.5	55.6
Allia von Schlegell	G	4	28.5	9.2	2.2	1.5	0.8	0.0	1.5	10.5	1.8	-29	4	-7.2	-10.2	35.7	22.7	50.0	-3.64	42.3	41.7
Denza Allen	F	4	21.0	8.0	6.0	1.5	1.5	1.8	2.5	8.0	8.2	9	4	2.2	4.3	43.8	22.2	14.3	2.06	41.9	46.9
Jana Nogués	G	4	26.2	7.5	2.5	1.5	1.2	0.0	3.5	9.5	-0.2	-5	4	-1.2	-1.9	23.7	20.0	81.8	0.73	35.0	27.6
Maci Rhoades	G	4	26.0	6.0	7.2	2.2	1.5	0.0	2.2	6.2	8.5	-30	4	-7.5	-11.4	24.0	16.7	56.2	-0.63	37.5	30.0
Dani Guedet	G	4	16.5	5.5	2.2	1.5	0.8	0.5	0.8	5.0	4.8	-23	4	-5.8	-13.9	40.0	38.5	50.0	-1.83	52.7	52.5
Maddie Vejsicky	G	4	18.5	3.8	3.0	1.2	0.5	0.5	1.0	5.0	3.0	-32	4	-8.0	-17.3	25.0	27.8	0	-4.83	37.5	37.5
Raeven Raye-Redmond	G	2	8.0	3.5	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	2.0	4.0	2	2	1.0	4.7	75.0	100.0	0	-1.32	87.5	87.5
Isabella Anderson	G	1	7.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	0	1	0.0	0.0	25.0	50.0	0	-2.41	37.5	37.5
Constanza Aravena	G	4	16.5	2.8	1.2	2.0	1.0	0.0	2.2	4.8	0.0	-2	4	-0.5	-1.2	26.3	10.0	0	0.98	28.9	28.9
Nuala Connolly	G	1	6.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	-1.0	-2	1	-2.0	-14.1	0.0	0.0	100.0	-1.3	25.8	0.0
Autumn Dibb	G	4	9.0	2.0	1.5	1.0	1.2	0.0	1.2	1.8	2.8	-3	4	-0.8	-3.3	57.1	0	0.0	-2.07	50.8	57.1
Kylee Norkus	G	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

264 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Points: who the team's points here most likely come from

Misses: who misses most here

Osadebamwen Igbinedion OmoruyiAllia von SchlegellDenza AllenDani GuedetJana NoguésHillary OffingMaci RhoadesMaddie VejsickyConstanza Aravena

Zone	FGM-FGA	FG%	Pts	Top scorer	Runner-up	Most misses	Runner-up
Restricted area	50-78	64.1	100	Osadebamwen Igbinedion Omoruyi 28% (28 pts)	Denza Allen 18% (18 pts)	Osadebamwen Igbinedion Omoruyi 25% (7 misses)	Jana Nogués 21% (6 misses)
Paint (non-RA)	19-62	30.6	38	Hillary Offing 21% (8 pts)	Osadebamwen Igbinedion Omoruyi 21% (8 pts)	Jana Nogués 21% (9 misses)	Osadebamwen Igbinedion Omoruyi 16% (7 misses)
Mid-range left	1-7	14.3	2	Denza Allen 100% (2 pts)	-	Constanza Aravena 33% (2 misses)	Dani Guedet 33% (2 misses)
Mid-range center	1-4	25.0	2	Allia von Schlegell 100% (2 pts)	-	Jana Nogués 67% (2 misses)	Hillary Offing 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range right	1-3	33.3	2	Allia von Schlegell 100% (2 pts)	-	Allia von Schlegell 50% (1 misses)	Constanza Aravena 50% (1 misses)
Left corner 3	2-11	18.2	6	Dani Guedet 100% (6 pts)	-	Jana Nogués 33% (3 misses)	Dani Guedet 22% (2 misses)
Right corner 3	4-16	25.0	12	Maci Rhoades 50% (6 pts)	Constanza Aravena 25% (3 pts)	Maci Rhoades 33% (4 misses)	Allia von Schlegell 25% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 left	5-25	20.0	15	Allia von Schlegell 40% (6 pts)	Dani Guedet 40% (6 pts)	Maddie Vejsicky 30% (6 misses)	Allia von Schlegell 20% (4 misses)
Above-break 3 center	4-13	30.8	12	Maddie Vejsicky 50% (6 pts)	Allia von Schlegell 25% (3 pts)	Allia von Schlegell 22% (2 misses)	Dani Guedet 22% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 right	11-45	24.4	33	Allia von Schlegell 18% (6 pts)	Denza Allen 18% (6 pts)	Allia von Schlegell 24% (8 misses)	Constanza Aravena 18% (6 misses)