Valdosta St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 981 (#311) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1030 (#229) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1058 (#122) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.9 (#121) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +8.5 (#233) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.856 (#208) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.746 (#211) | NetEff +8.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.943 (#162) | AdjNet +24.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.948 (#164) | AdjNet +24.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.817 (#152) | AdjO 72.4 | AdjD 56.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.614 (#153) | AdjO 67.2 | AdjD 62.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.677 (#202) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.676 (#199) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1044 (#211) | RD 96 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Eckerd | W | 66 - 58 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Palm Beach Atl. | W | 62 - 59 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Ga. Southwestern | L | 71 - 74 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Lynn | L | 65 - 76 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Embry-Riddle (FL) | L | 61 - 64 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | West Ala. | W | 85 - 68 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | UAH | L | 67 - 72 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | West Florida | L | 71 - 82 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Lee | L | 58 - 62 |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Fort Lauderdale | W | 107 - 55 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Mississippi Col. | W | 83 - 57 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Christian Brothers | W | 73 - 53 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Montevallo | W | 66 - 51 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | AUM | W | 74 - 65 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | UAH | L | 48 - 64 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | West Ala. | L | 49 - 71 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | West Florida | W | 79 - 76 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Lee | W | 68 - 65 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Trevecca Nazarene | W | 78 - 64 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Whalen | - | 19 | 33.4 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 51 | 2.3 | 13.3 | 42.6 | 33.8 | 70.0 | 1.85 | 50.1 | 47.9 |
| Aryana Hicks | - | 18 | 27.4 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 8.5 | 10.0 | -4 | -0.2 | -2.0 | 52.3 | 17.6 | 82.9 | -0.77 | 57.6 | 53.3 |
| Alina Martin | - | 19 | 23.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 47 | 2.2 | 19.7 | 36.3 | 16.7 | 84.1 | 3.44 | 46.6 | 37.9 |
| Raeanne Eccleston | - | 19 | 19.0 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 42 | 2.0 | 17.2 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 78.4 | 0.19 | 54.0 | 47.5 |
| Ka'Miah Pryor | - | 19 | 25.2 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 39 | 1.7 | 11.8 | 41.0 | 28.1 | 54.5 | -3.69 | 48.2 | 46.8 |
| Amaya Broadus | - | 8 | 21.2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 12 | 1.7 | 30.7 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 0.54 | 50.7 | 50.0 |
| Chardae Rumph | - | 19 | 16.9 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 48 | 2.3 | 16.4 | 39.5 | 33.3 | 75.0 | 1.74 | 49.4 | 48.2 |
| Kendall Dykstra | - | 10 | 22.4 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 6 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 33.3 | 21.1 | 81.2 | 1.15 | 44.5 | 37.5 |
| Alina Sapilak | - | 18 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 19 | 0.9 | 10.6 | 41.8 | 40.5 | 46.2 | 0.54 | 56.8 | 57.3 |
| Kaci Demps | - | 16 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 48 | 2.8 | 30.9 | 48.6 | 35.7 | 66.7 | 3.07 | 58.5 | 55.4 |
| Rebecca Souverain | - | 19 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 8 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 41.9 | 0 | 42.9 | 0.28 | 42.3 | 41.9 |
| Jada Williams | - | 7 | 6.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 10 | 1.1 | 7.9 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.51 | 16.7 | 16.7 |
| Bella Hopkins | - | 3 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -1 | -0.5 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG