Valdosta St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1099 (#94) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1136 (#82) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1081 (#88) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +13.1 (#86) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.7 (#249) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.575 (#299) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.993 (#78) | NetEff +46.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.745 (#273) | AdjNet +9.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.749 (#273) | AdjNet +9.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.670 (#260) | AdjO 92.4 | AdjD 84.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.604 (#142) | AdjO 89.4 | AdjD 84.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.659 (#181) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.651 (#180) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1123 (#98) | RD 94 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | Columbus St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Edward Waters | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Florida Tech | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Middle Georgia | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-24 | vs | Middle Georgia | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Embry-Riddle (FL) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | West Ala. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | UAH | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-08 | vs | Baptist U. (FL) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | West Florida | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-18 | @ | Trevecca Nazarene | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Lee | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Mississippi Col. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-04 | vs | Delta St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Union (TN) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Christian Brothers | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Montevallo | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | AUM | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | UAH | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | West Ala. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | West Florida | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Lee | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Trevecca Nazarene | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mills | - | 23 | 25.3 | 17.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 13.0 | 11.5 | -31 | -1.4 | -9.6 | 50.7 | 26.8 | 76.8 | 0.53 | 57.5 | 53.2 |
| Blaise Wallace | - | 23 | 27.2 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 9.4 | 15.1 | -55 | -2.5 | -12.7 | 52.3 | 31.2 | 69.7 | 0.38 | 57.8 | 53.5 |
| Peter McKey | - | 23 | 23.8 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 5 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 46.5 | 32.3 | 80.4 | 1.64 | 57.5 | 54.0 |
| Lucas Brown | - | 12 | 22.3 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 88 | 8.0 | 40.2 | 38.7 | 36.7 | 89.5 | 4.22 | 55.6 | 48.6 |
| Devon Rainey | - | 22 | 18.9 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | -10 | -0.5 | -6.7 | 54.7 | 45.0 | 81.4 | 1.99 | 66.3 | 61.3 |
| Samarion Bond | - | 23 | 16.1 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 14 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 50.0 | 43.8 | 64.6 | 1.99 | 57.0 | 54.7 |
| Maalik Leitch | - | 21 | 19.5 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -24 | -1.2 | -10.4 | 44.4 | 33.8 | 67.7 | -0.28 | 55.2 | 53.1 |
| MJ Jones | - | 23 | 23.8 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 6.9 | -25 | -1.1 | -8.9 | 45.3 | 34.5 | 76.4 | -1.35 | 57.6 | 52.5 |
| Antonio Green | - | 14 | 15.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 25 | 1.9 | 20.0 | 57.9 | 42.9 | 91.7 | 0.53 | 70.5 | 65.8 |
| Michael Batchelor | - | 23 | 12.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | -21 | -1.0 | -12.6 | 34.1 | 34.5 | 61.5 | 2.57 | 47.4 | 45.9 |
| Ethan Pires | - | 20 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 42.4 | 27.0 | 66.7 | -1.41 | 51.9 | 50.0 |
| Jose Cuello | - | 11 | 14.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 10 | 5.0 | 12.2 | 18.9 | 9.5 | 70.0 | -1.03 | 29.1 | 20.8 |
| Kaden Johnson | - | 5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.2 | 30.4 | 27.3 | 25.0 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 40.6 | 36.4 |
| Andrew Haynes | - | 2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -3 | -1.5 | -61.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG