VTSU Castleton
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 810 (#533) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 832 (#513) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 847 (#652) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -12.7 (#333) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.5 (#513) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.297 (#540) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.408 (#384) | NetEff -2.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.151 (#513) | AdjNet -15.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.152 (#508) | AdjNet -14.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.287 (#513) | AdjO 59.3 | AdjD 69.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.374 (#561) | AdjO 59.8 | AdjD 65.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.260 (#559) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.269 (#557) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 850 (#461) | RD 101 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Norwich | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Hartwick | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Fisher | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Clarkson | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Middlebury | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Keene St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Rhode Island Col. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | SUNY Oneonta | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Hamilton | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Southern Me. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Eastern Conn. St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | WestConn | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | UMass Boston | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | UMass Dartmouth | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-27 | @ | Keene St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Rhode Island Col. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | SUNY Cobleskill | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-08 | vs | WestConn | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Adams | - | 17 | 33.3 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 39.5 | 30.0 | 63.9 | 0.99 | 43.8 | 40.2 |
| Arianna Coombs | - | 17 | 25.5 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 9.8 | 7.9 | -36 | -1.8 | -11.1 | 43.4 | 0.0 | 67.2 | 2.23 | 47.8 | 43.4 |
| Stasia Epler | - | 17 | 33.1 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 13.5 | 1.0 | -72 | -3.6 | -17.7 | 27.8 | 23.9 | 69.2 | -1.14 | 35.8 | 33.7 |
| Maggie McKearin | - | 17 | 30.5 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 7.4 | -65 | -3.2 | -15.3 | 35.7 | 30.0 | 48.0 | -0.75 | 42.7 | 40.9 |
| Schuylar Nolan | - | 17 | 32.5 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | -64 | -3.2 | -15.5 | 33.9 | 25.0 | 69.4 | -0.15 | 42.4 | 36.0 |
| Kyrielle Deuso | - | 6 | 24.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 2.8 | -3 | -0.4 | -2.9 | 33.3 | 21.7 | 71.4 | -1.44 | 41.1 | 38.5 |
| Nevaeh Camp | - | 6 | 19.6 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 5.5 | 8.8 | - | - | - | 36.4 | 0 | 44.4 | 1.87 | 39.1 | 36.4 |
| Isabelle Cole | - | 16 | 14.4 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | -35 | -1.8 | -15.4 | 33.3 | 36.0 | 75.0 | -0.87 | 49.6 | 47.6 |
| Isabella Coombs | - | 11 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 41 | 3.7 | 28.2 | 42.4 | 0 | 57.9 | 3.25 | 47.1 | 42.4 |
| Julie Cooper | - | 2 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 9 | 4.5 | 59.7 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Emily Trepanier | - | 4 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Tiana Gallipo-Viernes | - | 15 | 7.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -0.9 | -37 | -2.1 | -51.6 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -3.81 | 13.3 | 5.9 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG