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VTSU Castleton

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: VTSU Castleton
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 858 (#574) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 868 (#537) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 902 (#674) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -19.3 (#360) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -17.3 (#644) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.206 (#664) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.7 More → 0.068 (#677) AdjNet -22.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.9 More → 0.065 (#675) AdjNet -22.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 82.8 More → 0.180 (#670) AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 82.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 75.5 More → 0.261 (#703) AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 75.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.194 (#663) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.201 (#673) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 109 | GP 20 More → 867 (#511) RD 109 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Rensselaer L 60 - 72
2025-11-11 @ Fitchburg St. L 79 - 81
2025-11-14 vs Me.-Farmington L 61 - 83
2025-11-15 vs St. John Fisher W 69 - 61
2025-11-19 @ Russell Sage L 64 - 75
2025-11-25 @ Colby-Sawyer W 86 - 81
2025-12-03 vs Keene St. L 65 - 87
2025-12-06 @ UMass Dartmouth L 55 - 78
2025-12-09 vs SUNY Cobleskill W 67 - 66
2025-12-13 @ Rhode Island Col. L 54 - 78
2025-12-30 vs Curry W 82 - 68
2026-01-02 vs SUNY Canton W 96 - 91
2026-01-08 vs Plymouth St. L 75 - 83
2026-01-10 vs Southern Me. L 74 - 78
2026-01-14 @ Eastern Conn. St. L 42 - 77
2026-01-17 @ WestConn L 65 - 103
2026-01-21 @ UMass Boston L 65 - 88
2026-01-24 vs UMass Dartmouth L 56 - 70
2026-01-27 @ Keene St. L 61 - 79
2026-01-31 vs Rhode Island Col. W 61 - 57
2026-02-08 vs WestConn L 0 - 0

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Will Radcliff - 20 31.3 19.9 8.9 2.6 1.2 0.4 3.0 14.1 15.9 -76 -4.0 -20.2 54.6 35.8 67.9 2.23 60.7 58.0
Ben Seiler - 20 24.8 10.8 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.6 10.3 2.6 -84 -4.7 -42.1 34.3 31.4 82.6 -3.38 47.7 43.2
Elijah Maldonado - 19 25.9 7.6 1.7 2.8 1.6 0.1 2.3 6.4 5.1 -46 -2.6 -15.0 41.8 29.3 75.0 0.15 51.6 46.7
Joe Buxton - 19 20.0 7.1 3.8 0.9 0.8 0.2 1.4 6.8 4.6 -66 -3.7 -41.1 38.8 30.3 63.6 2.21 48.3 46.5
Zach Thompson - 20 17.4 6.0 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.0 1.6 4.3 4.8 -37 -1.9 -22.6 47.7 37.5 80.6 2.89 59.7 54.7
Adam Bilodeau - 20 19.8 4.8 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 1.6 3.8 4.8 -77 -4.1 -27.3 42.7 38.9 60.7 0.76 54.4 52.0
Jackson Doyle - 16 14.5 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 3.3 1.6 -28 -1.6 -17.0 37.7 32.6 57.1 1.71 52.6 51.9
Conner McKearin - 19 21.4 3.3 3.2 1.5 1.2 0.2 1.4 4.5 3.4 -94 -5.2 -33.0 26.7 15.4 52.4 -1.94 33.1 30.2
Caleb Dsouza - 6 16.7 2.8 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.7 2.8 2.8 1 0.2 2.3 35.3 25.0 100.0 -0.02 47.5 44.1
Ethan Lussier - 15 14.9 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.4 -7 -0.5 -5.5 39.4 21.1 50.0 -0.61 45.7 45.5
Seamus Demauro - 18 7.7 1.4 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.8 -3 -0.2 -19.1 42.3 0 75.0 0.35 45.0 42.3
Jake Oglesby - 12 6.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 -0.2 -58 -4.8 -77.8 33.3 28.6 0 -1.02 38.9 38.9
Jerrick Jacobs - 4 2.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 -22 -2.4 -190.6 16.7 0.0 100.0 -0.36 29.1 16.7
Harry King - 8 6.5 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.2 -5 -0.8 -8.6 37.5 0 0 1.64 37.5 37.5
Hayden Lutz - 4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Dyvan Hevey - 3 1.8 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Cooper Losey - 5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -21 -5.2 -119.4 0.0 0 0 -0.77 0.0 0.0
Sam Moorman - 3 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.7 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG