Ursuline
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 815 (#503) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 783 (#507) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 855 (#646) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -11.9 (#257) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -6.8 (#466) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.362 (#420) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.156 (#378) | NetEff -13.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.472 (#418) | AdjNet -1.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.486 (#416) | AdjNet -0.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.495 (#412) | AdjO 64.2 | AdjD 64.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.327 (#593) | AdjO 62.0 | AdjD 70.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.266 (#549) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.270 (#554) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 807 (#464) | RD 104 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Truman St. | L | 63 - 86 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Quincy | L | 61 - 78 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | West Liberty | L | 81 - 87 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | UIndy | W | 66 - 62 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Bry. & Strat. (OH) USCAA | W | 90 - 47 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Malone | L | 57 - 65 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Roberts Wesleyan | L | 78 - 82 |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | Lake Erie | L | 49 - 68 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Walsh | L | 53 - 71 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Point Park | W | 80 - 74 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Ky. Wesleyan | L | 67 - 78 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Tiffin | L | 63 - 77 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Northwood | L | 49 - 78 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Cedarville | W | 63 - 61 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Ashland | L | 48 - 77 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Findlay | L | 64 - 72 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Hillsdale | L | 54 - 70 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Lake Erie | W | 82 - 61 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Findlay | L | 72 - 81 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Malone | L | 68 - 82 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailey Minch | - | 16 | 33.2 | 14.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 13.2 | 4.2 | -44 | -2.3 | -14.0 | 37.3 | 39.3 | 79.3 | 2.54 | 52.1 | 49.8 |
| Courtney Barwick | - | 20 | 32.8 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 6.5 | -75 | -3.3 | -17.7 | 43.2 | 31.3 | 81.6 | 0.16 | 54.7 | 51.3 |
| Ajia Schreffler | - | 20 | 27.8 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 8.1 | -47 | -2.1 | -10.1 | 47.1 | 50.0 | 77.6 | -0.32 | 51.5 | 47.4 |
| Brooke Haren | - | 20 | 32.9 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.3 | 10.1 | -83 | -3.8 | -15.2 | 36.7 | 22.8 | 74.6 | -2.57 | 45.5 | 39.9 |
| Destiny Dulkoski | - | 4 | 15.5 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | - | - | - | 64.0 | 54.5 | 100.0 | 0.84 | 76.7 | 76.0 |
| Chalon Miles | - | 17 | 26.9 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 4.2 | -106 | -5.6 | -39.4 | 38.4 | 32.8 | 75.0 | -0.14 | 47.0 | 45.7 |
| Gia Piscitelli | - | 20 | 25.4 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | -119 | -5.4 | -25.3 | 42.1 | 35.1 | 86.8 | -0.26 | 56.4 | 48.9 |
| Lyla Oliver | - | 20 | 18.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 4.8 | -35 | -1.5 | -12.0 | 41.2 | 20.0 | 66.7 | 1.61 | 44.9 | 41.9 |
| Allison Hufstedler | - | 19 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | -23 | -1.1 | -8.5 | 27.3 | 18.2 | 100.0 | -1.18 | 37.2 | 31.8 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG