🐻⬇️🏀

Ursuline

Also known as: Ursuline
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 815 (#503) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 783 (#507) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 855 (#646) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -11.9 (#257) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -6.8 (#466) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.362 (#420) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -13.3 More → 0.156 (#378) NetEff -13.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -1.0 More → 0.472 (#418) AdjNet -1.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.5 More → 0.486 (#416) AdjNet -0.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.2 | AdjD 64.4 More → 0.495 (#412) AdjO 64.2 | AdjD 64.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 62.0 | AdjD 70.0 More → 0.327 (#593) AdjO 62.0 | AdjD 70.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.266 (#549) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.270 (#554) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 104 | GP 23 More → 807 (#464) RD 104 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Truman St. L 63 - 86
2025-11-15 vs Quincy L 61 - 78
2025-11-19 vs West Liberty L 81 - 87
2025-11-22 vs UIndy W 66 - 62
2025-11-26 vs Bry. & Strat. (OH) USCAA W 90 - 47
2025-12-04 @ Malone L 57 - 65
2025-12-06 @ Roberts Wesleyan L 78 - 82
2025-12-11 vs Lake Erie L 49 - 68
2025-12-13 vs Walsh L 53 - 71
2025-12-20 vs Point Park W 80 - 74
2026-01-03 vs Ky. Wesleyan L 67 - 78
2026-01-10 vs Tiffin L 63 - 77
2026-01-15 @ Northwood L 49 - 78
2026-01-17 vs Cedarville W 63 - 61
2026-01-22 @ Ashland L 48 - 77
2026-01-24 vs Findlay L 64 - 72
2026-01-29 vs Hillsdale L 54 - 70
2026-01-31 @ Lake Erie W 82 - 61
2026-02-05 @ Findlay L 72 - 81
2026-02-07 vs Malone L 68 - 82

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kailey Minch - 16 33.2 14.6 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 2.7 13.2 4.2 -44 -2.3 -14.0 37.3 39.3 79.3 2.54 52.1 49.8
Courtney Barwick - 20 32.8 11.3 4.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 2.5 9.5 6.5 -75 -3.3 -17.7 43.2 31.3 81.6 0.16 54.7 51.3
Ajia Schreffler - 20 27.8 10.9 6.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 2.1 9.6 8.1 -47 -2.1 -10.1 47.1 50.0 77.6 -0.32 51.5 47.4
Brooke Haren - 20 32.9 10.8 8.7 1.5 1.5 0.0 2.0 10.3 10.1 -83 -3.8 -15.2 36.7 22.8 74.6 -2.57 45.5 39.9
Destiny Dulkoski - 4 15.5 9.8 4.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.0 6.2 8.8 - - - 64.0 54.5 100.0 0.84 76.7 76.0
Chalon Miles - 17 26.9 8.6 2.7 2.4 1.4 0.1 2.1 8.9 4.2 -106 -5.6 -39.4 38.4 32.8 75.0 -0.14 47.0 45.7
Gia Piscitelli - 20 25.4 6.3 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 3.6 4.8 2.8 -119 -5.4 -25.3 42.1 35.1 86.8 -0.26 56.4 48.9
Lyla Oliver - 20 18.7 3.4 4.0 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.2 3.4 4.8 -35 -1.5 -12.0 41.2 20.0 66.7 1.61 44.9 41.9
Allison Hufstedler - 19 10.7 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.6 -23 -1.1 -8.5 27.3 18.2 100.0 -1.18 37.2 31.8

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG