Upper Iowa
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 893 (#453) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 995 (#288) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1052 (#135) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.4 (#187) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.9 (#287) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.631 (#314) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.386 (#305) | NetEff -3.7 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.001 (#490) | NetEff -58.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.744 (#298) | AdjNet +9.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.770 (#294) | AdjNet +10.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.622 (#314) | AdjO 70.6 | AdjD 65.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.571 (#212) | AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 62.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.594 (#269) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.598 (#267) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1025 (#220) | RD 93 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Northern Mich. | L | 40 - 95 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Michigan Tech | L | 30 - 70 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Winona St. | W | 59 - 49 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Augustana (SD) | L | 67 - 76 |
| 2025-11-24 | vs | Clarke | W | 80 - 61 |
| 2025-12-01 | @ | Quincy | W | 91 - 83 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Lincoln (MO) | W | 90 - 67 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Missouri S&T | W | 61 - 56 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Roosevelt | W | 64 - 56 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Lake Superior St. | L | 62 - 65 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Maryville (MO) | L | 69 - 79 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Lewis | L | 53 - 65 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Quincy | L | 54 - 58 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Truman St. | L | 63 - 77 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | William Jewell | W | 68 - 53 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Rockhurst | W | 73 - 60 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Southwest Baptist | W | 60 - 54 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Drury | L | 75 - 77 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Missouri S&T | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Lincoln (MO) | W | 79 - 59 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Foster | - | 20 | 32.3 | 13.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 12.7 | 7.1 | -3 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 40.2 | 35.9 | 78.6 | 1.3 | 52.2 | 50.4 |
| Ava Privet | - | 19 | 30.3 | 13.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 10.2 | 7.6 | -10 | -0.5 | -1.7 | 42.8 | 39.3 | 91.3 | -0.73 | 59.3 | 54.6 |
| Kendyl Lodermeier | - | 19 | 27.3 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 20 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 51.5 | 0.0 | 79.7 | 0.5 | 56.9 | 51.5 |
| Bryar Duwe | - | 20 | 28.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 5.2 | -32 | -1.4 | -5.3 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 75.6 | 0.74 | 42.5 | 37.8 |
| Lindsey Davis | - | 5 | 19.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 60 | 2.9 | 9.4 | 40.0 | 30.8 | 70.0 | 2.63 | 49.5 | 45.7 |
| Sydnee Nelson | - | 20 | 32.6 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 7.2 | -20 | -0.9 | -2.8 | 40.2 | 35.1 | 56.0 | -0.69 | 49.2 | 46.3 |
| Josie Foster | - | 20 | 14.6 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 8 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 42.5 | 31.2 | 69.2 | 1.07 | 51.8 | 48.3 |
| Kenzie Deaton | - | 18 | 16.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 | -96 | -4.6 | -43.4 | 33.3 | 30.8 | 76.9 | -3.65 | 41.5 | 36.8 |
| Amelia Valentino | - | 19 | 10.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -57 | -2.7 | -21.2 | 42.4 | 41.7 | 100.0 | -1.96 | 60.4 | 57.6 |
| Jordan McMahon | - | 8 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -54 | -6.0 | -158.6 | 37.5 | 0 | 85.7 | -2.57 | 47.2 | 37.5 |
| Magi Bjornson | - | 9 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -55 | -5.0 | -41.9 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Reagan Hofer | - | 5 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -27 | -3.9 | -103.7 | 16.7 | 50.0 | 0 | -1.64 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Steph Cink | - | 5 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -8 | -1.0 | -31.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.06 | 34.7 | 0.0 |
| Amara Retreage | - | 5 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.8 | -25 | -3.6 | -112.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -1.6 | 8.5 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG