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Upper Iowa

Also known as: Upper Iowa
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 893 (#453) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 995 (#288) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1052 (#135) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -1.4 (#187) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +4.9 (#287) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.631 (#314) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -3.7 More → 0.386 (#305) NetEff -3.7
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -58.3 More → 0.001 (#490) NetEff -58.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +9.3 More → 0.744 (#298) AdjNet +9.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +10.2 More → 0.770 (#294) AdjNet +10.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 70.6 | AdjD 65.1 More → 0.622 (#314) AdjO 70.6 | AdjD 65.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 62.8 More → 0.571 (#212) AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 62.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.594 (#269) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.598 (#267) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 23 More → 1025 (#220) RD 93 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Northern Mich. L 40 - 95
2025-11-15 @ Michigan Tech L 30 - 70
2025-11-18 vs Winona St. W 59 - 49
2025-11-22 vs Augustana (SD) L 67 - 76
2025-11-24 vs Clarke W 80 - 61
2025-12-01 @ Quincy W 91 - 83
2025-12-04 vs Lincoln (MO) W 90 - 67
2025-12-06 vs Missouri S&T W 61 - 56
2025-12-16 vs Roosevelt W 64 - 56
2025-12-20 vs Lake Superior St. L 62 - 65
2026-01-02 @ Maryville (MO) L 69 - 79
2026-01-10 vs Lewis L 53 - 65
2026-01-15 vs Quincy L 54 - 58
2026-01-17 vs Truman St. L 63 - 77
2026-01-22 @ William Jewell W 68 - 53
2026-01-24 @ Rockhurst W 73 - 60
2026-01-29 vs Southwest Baptist W 60 - 54
2026-01-31 vs Drury L 75 - 77
2026-02-05 @ Missouri S&T W 77 - 73
2026-02-07 @ Lincoln (MO) W 79 - 59

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ellie Foster - 20 32.3 13.9 4.0 2.0 1.1 0.8 2.0 12.7 7.1 -3 -0.1 -0.4 40.2 35.9 78.6 1.3 52.2 50.4
Ava Privet - 19 30.3 13.4 4.0 1.2 1.1 0.4 2.1 10.2 7.6 -10 -0.5 -1.7 42.8 39.3 91.3 -0.73 59.3 54.6
Kendyl Lodermeier - 19 27.3 11.3 5.3 1.4 0.5 0.6 2.3 8.6 8.3 20 0.9 3.0 51.5 0.0 79.7 0.5 56.9 51.5
Bryar Duwe - 20 28.2 8.7 4.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 1.6 9.2 5.2 -32 -1.4 -5.3 30.3 30.1 75.6 0.74 42.5 37.8
Lindsey Davis - 5 19.2 7.8 3.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 2.2 7.0 4.0 60 2.9 9.4 40.0 30.8 70.0 2.63 49.5 45.7
Sydnee Nelson - 20 32.6 6.3 4.5 3.5 0.5 0.2 2.5 5.3 7.2 -20 -0.9 -2.8 40.2 35.1 56.0 -0.69 49.2 46.3
Josie Foster - 20 14.6 5.1 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 4.3 3.7 8 0.3 2.0 42.5 31.2 69.2 1.07 51.8 48.3
Kenzie Deaton - 18 16.8 2.9 3.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.8 3.2 2.6 -96 -4.6 -43.4 33.3 30.8 76.9 -3.65 41.5 36.8
Amelia Valentino - 19 10.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 -57 -2.7 -21.2 42.4 41.7 100.0 -1.96 60.4 57.6
Jordan McMahon - 8 6.7 2.2 2.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.1 -54 -6.0 -158.6 37.5 0 85.7 -2.57 47.2 37.5
Magi Bjornson - 9 8.2 0.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.3 1.3 2.1 -55 -5.0 -41.9 33.3 0.0 0 -0.8 33.3 33.3
Reagan Hofer - 5 4.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.4 -27 -3.9 -103.7 16.7 50.0 0 -1.64 25.0 25.0
Steph Cink - 5 4.3 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.4 -0.4 -8 -1.0 -31.4 0.0 0.0 100.0 -1.06 34.7 0.0
Amara Retreage - 5 3.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.0 -0.8 -25 -3.6 -112.8 0.0 0 50.0 -1.6 8.5 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG