🐻⬇️🏀

UVA Wise

Also known as: UVA Wise
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1025 (#198) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1077 (#124) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1005 (#346) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +0.8 (#165) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +4.0 (#297) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.287 (#448) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -4.9 More → 0.345 (#322) NetEff -4.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.0 More → 0.501 (#405) AdjNet +0.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.3 More → 0.509 (#407) AdjNet +0.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 70.6 | AdjD 71.2 More → 0.486 (#423) AdjO 70.6 | AdjD 71.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.7 | AdjD 63.2 More → 0.557 (#235) AdjO 65.7 | AdjD 63.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.514 (#343) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.534 (#322) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 95 | GP 24 More → 1057 (#191) RD 95 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Ga. Southwestern W 68 - 64
2025-11-15 @ USC Beaufort W 78 - 72
2025-11-18 @ King (TN) W 81 - 64
2025-11-22 vs Concord L 78 - 91
2025-11-26 @ Liberty L 35 - 80
2025-11-29 @ Young Harris L 62 - 78
2025-12-01 @ High Point L 57 - 101
2025-12-03 vs Wingate W 69 - 54
2025-12-06 @ Newberry W 45 - 32
2025-12-13 vs Lenoir-Rhyne W 95 - 90
2025-12-17 @ Carson-Newman L 58 - 84
2025-12-20 @ Glenville St. L 77 - 90
2026-01-03 @ Coker L 49 - 65
2026-01-10 @ Catawba L 54 - 69
2026-01-14 vs Tusculum W 74 - 64
2026-01-17 vs Anderson (SC) W 69 - 66
2026-01-21 @ Lincoln Memorial L 50 - 67
2026-01-23 @ Wingate L 65 - 66
2026-01-28 vs Mars Hill W 106 - 59
2026-01-30 vs Newberry W 74 - 43
2026-02-04 vs Carson-Newman W 83 - 70
2026-02-07 @ Lenoir-Rhyne L 86 - 89

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Caroline Mullins - 22 32.8 18.3 8.3 2.3 1.5 0.9 3.0 14.4 13.9 121 5.0 19.0 44.8 23.5 79.7 5.04 53.5 46.7
Madison Looney - 22 22.1 11.6 5.1 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.9 10.0 6.6 61 2.5 16.3 50.9 14.3 68.2 -0.63 53.3 51.1
Alissa Cheek - 19 29.1 10.2 2.0 3.1 0.9 0.3 2.0 8.1 6.4 -2 -0.1 -0.3 43.1 34.8 76.5 -0.9 55.3 50.7
Patricia Vyborny - 1 20.4 8.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 7 3.5 19.9 60.0 0 100.0 -0.91 68.0 60.0
Emilea Preece - 16 18.5 7.0 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.9 1.4 6.5 4.4 60 3.0 12.8 37.5 37.0 58.3 0.8 48.9 47.1
Mia Nienaber - 22 26.8 6.3 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.5 2.7 5.6 4.0 86 3.9 15.8 31.5 28.4 70.9 3.38 46.6 39.9
Jalie Ruehling - 22 29.5 5.2 5.3 3.3 1.9 0.1 2.8 4.6 8.4 68 2.8 13.1 34.7 27.6 74.4 1.7 48.7 42.6
Shelby Higgins - 18 8.6 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.9 1.4 -6 -0.4 -4.9 37.1 34.8 80.0 2.07 51.1 48.6
Izzy Proffitt - 21 14.1 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.0 1 0.1 0.3 34.4 39.1 77.8 0.89 46.6 41.4
Abigail Jordan - 11 5.4 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 2.2 17 1.7 43.1 47.1 60.0 90.9 0.34 66.4 55.9
Kyndra West - 19 15.1 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.9 30 1.6 19.8 45.5 40.0 66.7 0.18 53.6 52.3
Katy Hoover - 9 5.6 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.0 23 2.9 45.7 40.9 25.0 50.0 1.05 46.3 45.5
Grace Vyborny - 12 8.4 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 2.2 1.2 5 0.4 4.1 30.8 0.0 25.0 -0.56 30.6 30.8
Jaci Neubert - 16 5.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 3 0.2 2.6 33.3 0.0 100.0 -2.03 47.0 33.3
Brooklyn Frazier - 8 4.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.8 26 2.9 101.8 25.0 25.0 50.0 1.5 45.2 37.5
Taylor Hawley - 11 2.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 34 3.4 207.6 40.0 0.0 33.3 2.75 39.6 40.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG