🐻⬇️🏀

UT Martin

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: UT Martin Skyhawks
Program History
Coach: Kevin McMillan

2026-2027 Team Stats (2 games)

97.5
PPG
65.0
Opp
+32.5
Margin
52.8%
FG%
33.3%
3P%
74.5%
FT%
48.0
RPG
16.0
APG
16.0
TO
84.8
Est. poss./game
68.5
Adj PPG
72.7
Adj Opp PPG
#310
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 755 (returning production + recruiting): last season 903, returning -90, transfers -58, freshmen +0 More → 809 (#287) Preseason prior 755 (returning production + recruiting): last season 903, returning -90, transfers -58, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +215 elo More → 817 (#316) HCA +215 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +215 elo More → 914 (#306) HCA +215 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +9.3 More → -12.4 (#299) HCA +9.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +9.3 More → -11.9 (#298) HCA +9.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.172 (#266) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.8 More → 0.299 (#276) AdjNet +0.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.8 More → 0.295 (#275) AdjNet +0.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 72.7 More → 0.262 (#310) AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 72.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 72.6 More → 0.320 (#309) AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 72.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.255 (#296) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.266 (#294) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 219 | GP 1 More → 824 (#303) RD 219 | GP 1
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. More → 0.097 (#320) Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 90 - 89
2026-11-05 vs Christian Brothers Buccaneers W 105 - 41
2026-11-08 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs - Incomplete score
2026-11-12 @ Missouri Tigers - Preview
2026-11-15 vs Butler Bulldogs - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Raven Sims Raven Sims G 2 20.0 18.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 12.5 12.5 31 2 15.5 35.6 56.0 50.0 70.0 2.72 61.2 58.0
Alorian Story Alorian Story C 2 14.5 13.5 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 9.0 9.0 21 2 10.5 31.3 66.7 0 60.0 1.49 66.8 66.7
Olivia Smith Olivia Smith G 2 24.0 11.5 3.0 4.5 3.0 0.5 1.0 8.0 13.5 39 2 19.5 35.6 68.8 33.3 0 2.68 71.9 71.9
Tyler Jones Tyler Jones G 2 21.5 9.5 2.5 0.5 2.5 0.0 0.5 9.5 5.0 - - - - 42.1 0.0 100.0 - 46.8 42.1
Lily Espelet Lily Espelet F 2 16.0 9.0 2.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 6.0 7.5 26 2 13.0 35.4 58.3 66.7 100.0 1.06 69.9 66.7
Kennedy Horton Kennedy Horton F 2 13.5 7.5 3.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 3.5 7.0 13 2 6.5 20.3 71.4 0 100.0 -0.41 81.5 71.4
Maddie Penney Maddie Penney G 2 14.5 6.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 7.0 27 2 13.5 37.1 57.1 50.0 66.7 0.87 72.1 71.4
Sophie Chard Peloquin Sophie Chard Peloquin G 2 13.0 5.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.5 3.5 5.0 19 2 9.5 31.3 57.1 0.0 66.7 0.08 60.1 57.1
Sidni Middleton Sidni Middleton G 2 15.5 5.0 3.0 3.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 5.0 7.0 24 2 12.0 29.7 20.0 0.0 66.7 -0.89 35.8 20.0
Mimi Lazarevic Mimi Lazarevic G 2 14.5 4.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.0 0.0 5 2 2.5 7.4 30.0 0.0 66.7 -1.03 35.3 30.0
Curnesha Taylor Curnesha Taylor G 1 9.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 10 1 10.0 41.3 66.7 0 0 -0.16 66.7 66.7
Chloe Chard Peloquin Chloe Chard Peloquin F 2 10.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 4.0 17 2 8.5 35.2 33.3 100.0 75.0 -1.39 63.0 50.0
Angela Mirkovic Angela Mirkovic F 2 9.0 2.5 3.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 6.0 32 2 16.0 69.6 66.7 100.0 0 2.3 83.3 83.3
Na'Kayjah Holman Na'Kayjah Holman G 2 9.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.5 16 2 8.0 34.8 25.0 0.0 0 0.68 25.0 25.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

144 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Story23% Sims19% Espelet20% Jones100% Story50% Espelet100% Penney100% Mirkovic50% Espelet25%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Story33% Jones19% Sims30% Sims50% Jones50% Smith100% Penney25% Lazarevic33% Middleton50%
Misses: who misses most here

Raven SimsAlorian StoryOlivia SmithLily EspeletTyler JonesMaddie PenneyMimi LazarevicAngela MirkovicSidni Middleton

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 22-31 71.0 44 Alorian Story 23% (10 pts) Olivia Smith 23% (10 pts) Alorian Story 33% (3 misses) Olivia Smith 22% (2 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 31-58 53.4 62 Raven Sims 19% (12 pts) Kennedy Horton 16% (10 pts) Tyler Jones 19% (5 misses) Raven Sims 15% (4 misses)
Mid-range left 10-20 50.0 20 Lily Espelet 20% (4 pts) Olivia Smith 20% (4 pts) Raven Sims 30% (3 misses) Mimi Lazarevic 20% (2 misses)
Mid-range center 1-3 33.3 2 Tyler Jones 100% (2 pts) - Raven Sims 50% (1 misses) Sidni Middleton 50% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 4-8 50.0 8 Alorian Story 50% (4 pts) Lily Espelet 25% (2 pts) Tyler Jones 50% (2 misses) Curnesha Taylor 25% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 1-1 100.0 3 Lily Espelet 100% (3 pts) - - -
Right corner 3 0-1 0.0 0 - - Olivia Smith 100% (1 misses) -
Above-break 3 left 1-9 11.1 3 Maddie Penney 100% (3 pts) - Maddie Penney 25% (2 misses) Mimi Lazarevic 25% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 center 2-5 40.0 6 Angela Mirkovic 50% (3 pts) Chloe Chard Peloquin 50% (3 pts) Mimi Lazarevic 33% (1 misses) Sidni Middleton 33% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right 4-8 50.0 12 Lily Espelet 25% (3 pts) Maddie Penney 25% (3 pts) Sidni Middleton 50% (2 misses) Olivia Smith 25% (1 misses)