UNC Wilmington2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
Model Outputs
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 733 (#324) | Preseason prior 722 (returning production + recruiting): last season 838, returning -95, transfers -21, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 814 (#329) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 817 (#329) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -12.5 (#285) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -12.5 (#285) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.277 (#217) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.297 (#260) | AdjNet -0.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.291 (#261) | AdjNet -1.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.310 (#284) | AdjO 58.6 | AdjD 59.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.312 (#283) | AdjO 58.5 | AdjD 59.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.264 (#287) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.265 (#287) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 817 (#311) | RD 196 | GP 2 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.190 (#309) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | vs | Barton Bulldogs | W | 75 - 44 |
| 2026-11-07 | vs | North Carolina Central Eagles | W | 82 - 48 |
| 2026-11-12 | @ | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L | 48 - 65 |
| 2026-11-16 | @ | Presbyterian Blue Hose | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tiara Thompson
|
G | 3 | 25.0 | 13.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 66 | 3 | 22.0 | 37.5 | 47.2 | 37.5 | 57.1 | 3.23 | 52.5 | 51.4 |
Loghan Johnson
|
G | 3 | 25.7 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 9.3 | 13.7 | 58 | 3 | 19.3 | 30.7 | 57.1 | 60.0 | 57.1 | 3.27 | 62.7 | 62.5 |
Sienna Dauer
|
G | 3 | 27.0 | 11.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 52 | 3 | 17.3 | 25.2 | 37.5 | 30.8 | 66.7 | -0.62 | 47.3 | 43.8 |
Naylee Cortes
|
F | 3 | 21.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 51 | 3 | 17.0 | 31.6 | 55.0 | - | 50.0 | 0.72 | 55.1 | 55.0 |
Ebbony Wilson
|
G | 3 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | -2 | 3 | -0.7 | -2.1 | 38.5 | 44.4 | - | -2.95 | 53.8 | 53.8 |
Kimmie Hicks
|
G | 3 | 24.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 52 | 3 | 17.3 | 29.5 | 20.0 | 100.0 | 70.0 | 2.41 | 45.1 | 30.0 |
Bella Toomey
|
F | 3 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 15 | 3 | 5.0 | 19.9 | 62.5 | - | 50.0 | 0.11 | 61.1 | 62.5 |
Promise Njoku
|
G | 3 | 20.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | -13 | 3 | -4.3 | -9.2 | 23.1 | 0.0 | 45.5 | -2.27 | 30.8 | 23.1 |
Morgan White
|
C | 3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | -7 | 3 | -2.3 | -18.4 | 40.0 | - | 66.7 | -1.29 | 44.2 | 40.0 |
Leah Keyes
|
SF | 3 | 16.0 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -17 | 3 | -5.7 | -14.9 | 16.7 | 20.0 | 50.0 | -4.28 | 29.1 | 25.0 |
Alva Hägerström
|
G | 3 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | -15 | 3 | -5.0 | -18.7 | 20.0 | 100.0 | - | -2.44 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
Jazlyn Bowman
|
G | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
181 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Tiara ThompsonLoghan JohnsonSienna DauerNaylee CortesEbbony WilsonBella ToomeyKimmie HicksPromise NjokuLeah Keyes
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 42-66 | 63.6 | 84 | Tiara Thompson 26% (22 pts) | Loghan Johnson 21% (18 pts) | Tiara Thompson 21% (5 misses) | Loghan Johnson 17% (4 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 10-49 | 20.4 | 20 | Loghan Johnson 30% (6 pts) | Naylee Cortes 20% (4 pts) | Promise Njoku 18% (7 misses) | Sienna Dauer 15% (6 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 3-6 | 50.0 | 6 | Naylee Cortes 67% (4 pts) | Tiara Thompson 33% (2 pts) | Tiara Thompson 67% (2 misses) | Loghan Johnson 33% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 1-5 | 20.0 | 2 | Loghan Johnson 100% (2 pts) | - | Kimmie Hicks 50% (2 misses) | Naylee Cortes 25% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 3-10 | 30.0 | 6 | Naylee Cortes 67% (4 pts) | Bella Toomey 33% (2 pts) | Bella Toomey 43% (3 misses) | Kimmie Hicks 14% (1 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 5-7 | 71.4 | 15 | Sienna Dauer 40% (6 pts) | Ebbony Wilson 20% (3 pts) | Promise Njoku 50% (1 misses) | Sienna Dauer 50% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 0-1 | 0.0 | 0 | - | - | Sienna Dauer 100% (1 misses) | - |
| Above-break 3 left | 3-14 | 21.4 | 9 | Sienna Dauer 67% (6 pts) | Tiara Thompson 33% (3 pts) | Ebbony Wilson 36% (4 misses) | Tiara Thompson 27% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 4-10 | 40.0 | 12 | Loghan Johnson 50% (6 pts) | Kimmie Hicks 25% (3 pts) | Leah Keyes 50% (3 misses) | Loghan Johnson 17% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 6-13 | 46.2 | 18 | Ebbony Wilson 50% (9 pts) | Alva Hägerström 17% (3 pts) | Sienna Dauer 57% (4 misses) | Ebbony Wilson 14% (1 misses) |