UNC Pembroke
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1038 (#124) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1093 (#111) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1148 (#32) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.9 (#141) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +9.2 (#167) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.818 (#151) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.999 (#27) | NetEff +67.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.869 (#174) | AdjNet +16.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.871 (#176) | AdjNet +16.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.759 (#167) | AdjO 82.1 | AdjD 69.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.706 (#68) | AdjO 76.5 | AdjD 66.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.749 (#102) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.751 (#92) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1153 (#74) | RD 103 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | USC Aiken | L | 72 - 75 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Lander | L | 74 - 80 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Fayetteville St. | W | 84 - 75 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Young Harris | W | 78 - 54 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Barton | W | 92 - 71 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | USC Beaufort | L | 80 - 81 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Shaw | L | 80 - 84 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Claflin | W | 86 - 72 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Virginia St. | W | 75 - 68 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Ferrum | W | 79 - 71 |
| 2025-12-31 | vs | Lenoir-Rhyne | L | 67 - 83 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | King (TN) | L | 69 - 74 |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | Francis Marion | W | 88 - 76 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Belmont Abbey | W | 70 - 51 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Chowan | W | 85 - 82 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Erskine | W | 78 - 53 |
| 2026-01-19 | vs | Converse | W | 88 - 68 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Mount Olive | W | 84 - 65 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Barton | W | 85 - 70 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Francis Marion | W | 79 - 56 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Emmanuel (GA) | W | 80 - 77 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Story | - | 1 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 23.0 | 25.0 | 145 | 6.3 | 45.8 | 39.1 | 36.4 | 90.0 | 1.84 | 62.9 | 47.8 |
| Javonte Waverly | - | 13 | 29.9 | 19.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 32 | 2.7 | 37.5 | 51.2 | 42.6 | 89.4 | -0.27 | 66.7 | 60.3 |
| Troy Santos | - | 1 | 13.9 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | -62 | -3.6 | -222.4 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 83.3 | 0.5 | 71.2 | 65.0 |
| Ezra Mckee | - | 1 | 33.0 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 113 | 5.1 | 47.5 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 37.5 | 3.95 | 59.2 | 65.0 |
| Cole Deptula | - | 1 | 38.6 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -33 | -1.7 | -26.2 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0.22 | 45.1 | 41.7 |
| Mahmoud Bangura | - | 17 | 24.3 | 12.6 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 10.9 | -76 | -4.5 | -34.2 | 56.1 | 33.3 | 76.8 | 1.12 | 68.5 | 59.8 |
| Quay Watson | - | 14 | 25.1 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 48 | 3.4 | 95.5 | 45.9 | 39.1 | 78.8 | -0.27 | 59.3 | 56.0 |
| Nygell Verdier | - | 15 | 27.6 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 87 | 5.1 | 43.8 | 44.8 | 25.6 | 66.2 | 1.09 | 53.7 | 48.9 |
| Adonis Cole | - | 1 | 34.8 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 15.0 | -102 | -5.1 | -101.8 | 80.0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.3 | 87.0 | 80.0 |
| Sam Thacker | - | 1 | 36.8 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 68 | 4.2 | 29.2 | 40.0 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 2.25 | 50.6 | 45.0 |
| Demar Anderson | - | 15 | 16.6 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 59 | 3.7 | 49.3 | 45.3 | 45.8 | 82.5 | 2.35 | 69.5 | 64.5 |
| Patrick Antonelli | - | 1 | 26.2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | -34 | -1.9 | -30.1 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -0.99 | 67.8 | 37.5 |
| Clyde Mauldin | - | 1 | 18.6 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -32 | -1.8 | -36.4 | 75.0 | 100.0 | 50.0 | -0.68 | 82.0 | 87.5 |
| Farid SaintCyr Jr. | - | 1 | 19.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | -65 | -3.8 | -55.3 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 57.1 | 0.39 | 44.1 | 33.3 |
| Joe'l Pettiford | - | 19 | 17.3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 15 | 0.8 | 10.5 | 61.5 | 0 | 62.5 | 0.41 | 63.6 | 61.5 |
| Dallas Whitney | - | 19 | 21.5 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 100 | 5.3 | 39.0 | 43.4 | 42.5 | 61.9 | 4.23 | 55.3 | 53.6 |
| Massimo Moretti | - | 1 | 17.1 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 72 | 3.6 | 52.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | -0.22 | 133.0 | 150.0 |
| Jonathan Kurtas | - | 19 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 91 | 4.8 | 73.0 | 60.0 | 0 | 48.1 | 0.15 | 58.3 | 60.0 |
| JP Ricks | - | 3 | 23.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 6.3 | -4 | -1.3 | -7.3 | 33.3 | 14.3 | 66.7 | -2.71 | 39.8 | 36.7 |
| Tahj Johnson | - | 17 | 16.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 71 | 3.7 | 43.4 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 38.1 | 1.12 | 62.7 | 66.7 |
| AuMauri Tillman | - | 1 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -17 | -0.9 | -17.7 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.04 | 34.0 | 20.0 |
| Isaac Jones | - | 1 | 30.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 121 | 6.0 | 52.5 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 3.38 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Tyrese Melo-Garcia | - | 14 | 12.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 4 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 36.4 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -0.01 | 42.8 | 42.4 |
| William Asken | - | 1 | 12.7 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -33 | -1.6 | -61.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.42 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Jevon Brown | - | 1 | 14.6 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 92 | 4.8 | 44.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.11 | 34.7 | 0.0 |
| Andrija Vujacic | - | 1 | 15.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 50 | 2.4 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.97 | 53.2 | 0.0 |
| Peyton Mann | - | 7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -15 | -1.9 | -339.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -0.15 | 116.7 | 116.7 |
| Connor Harris | - | 7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -15 | -1.9 | -339.6 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.15 | 44.4 | 20.0 |
| Will Brown | - | 5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -9 | -1.8 | -203.8 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.15 | 37.6 | 25.0 |
| Steven Lassiter | - | 11 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -17 | -1.5 | -126.3 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | -0.24 | 87.2 | 83.3 |
| Duncan Alevok | - | 1 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -13 | -0.7 | -16.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2.43 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Justin Grimes | - | 5 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -14 | -2.0 | -248.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.59 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Matthew McKenzie | - | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 16 | 1.1 | 39.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 |
| Rett VanDeMark | - | 1 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 82 | 3.6 | 82.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.58 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG