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UMBC

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: UMBC Retrievers
Program History
Coach: Jim Ferry

2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)

77.5
PPG
75.2
Opp
+2.2
Margin
41.4%
FG%
32.2%
3P%
84.1%
FT%
39.8
RPG
14.8
APG
13.8
TO
75.4
Est. poss./game
73.5
Adj PPG
76.5
Adj Opp PPG
#217
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 892 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1033, returning -54, transfers -50, freshmen -37 More → 882 (#211) Preseason prior 892 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1033, returning -54, transfers -50, freshmen -37
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +212 elo More → 950 (#204) HCA +212 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +212 elo More → 972 (#216) HCA +212 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.0 More → -9.1 (#283) HCA +2.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.0 More → -9.0 (#283) HCA +2.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.330 (#218) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -8.4 More → 0.369 (#244) AdjNet -8.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -9.4 More → 0.356 (#254) AdjNet -9.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.5 | AdjD 76.5 More → 0.426 (#217) AdjO 73.5 | AdjD 76.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 76.4 More → 0.440 (#218) AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 76.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.373 (#242) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.376 (#244) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 182 | GP 3 More → 934 (#211) RD 182 | GP 3
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.359 (#220) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 @ George Mason Patriots L 54 - 82
2026-11-05 @ Marist Red Foxes L 80 - 88
2026-11-09 vs McDaniel Green Terror W 91 - 61
2026-11-12 vs Morgan State Bears W 85 - 70
2026-11-14 @ Towson Tigers - Preview
2026-11-16 vs Iona Gaels - Preview
2026-11-19 @ Ohio State Buckeyes - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Devin Ceaser Devin Ceaser G 4 27.2 17.5 4.5 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.0 15.0 7.0 3 1 3.0 3.6 40.0 32.0 87.5 0.2 52.2 46.7
Aidan Able Aidan Able G 4 26.5 12.8 3.5 3.0 0.8 0.0 1.0 11.0 8.0 -4 1 -4.0 -5.3 43.2 41.4 50.0 -0.39 56.8 56.8
Riley Jacobs Riley Jacobs F 4 23.5 9.8 5.8 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.5 6.2 13.2 1 1 1.0 1.3 52.0 25.0 85.7 0.01 62.6 54.0
Flash Burton Flash Burton G 4 27.8 9.2 3.5 2.8 1.8 0.2 3.2 10.5 3.8 0 1 0.0 0.0 35.7 33.3 80.0 -1.38 41.9 39.3
Carlos Varela Carlos Varela G 4 23.0 5.8 3.2 1.8 1.2 0.5 1.8 3.0 7.8 -16 1 -16.0 -38.8 50.0 55.6 100.0 -1.24 78.6 70.8
Taesyn Slating Taesyn Slating G 1 6.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 - - - - 50.0 50.0 100.0 - 86.8 75.0
Evan Morton Evan Morton G 3 10.7 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.7 3.7 -8 1 -8.0 -56.0 54.5 28.6 0 -0.85 63.6 63.6
Steven Huan Steven Huan F 4 10.2 4.5 2.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 3.0 4.5 -9 1 -9.0 -52.2 50.0 0.0 85.7 -0.93 59.7 50.0
Jovan Ristic Jovan Ristic G 4 24.2 4.2 7.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 4.5 8.2 -3 1 -3.0 -4.0 33.3 20.0 75.0 -0.38 43.0 38.9
JP Ndong JP Ndong F 4 13.8 3.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.8 -4 1 -4.0 -17.5 50.0 28.6 33.3 -0.41 56.3 58.3
Jaiden Reynolds Jaiden Reynolds G 3 7.3 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 4.7 1.3 -1 1 -1.0 -16.8 21.4 18.2 100.0 -0.23 33.6 28.6
Leo Ferry Leo Ferry G 1 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 - - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Alpha Barry Alpha Barry F 3 7.0 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.7 2.0 1 1 1.0 26.4 40.0 0.0 100.0 -0.14 51.0 40.0
Regimantas Ciunys Regimantas Ciunys F 2 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 1.5 - - - - 25.0 0.0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Austin Cross Austin Cross G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

263 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Jacobs24% Ceaser20% Ceaser50% Ceaser62% Burton100% Able50% Morton50% Able35% Varela60% Ceaser38%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Able21% Burton37% Ceaser50% Ceaser40% Ceaser57% Ceaser29% Ristic75% Ceaser19% Able32% Able20%
Misses: who misses most here

Devin CeaserAidan AbleFlash BurtonRiley JacobsCarlos VarelaEvan MortonJovan Ristic

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 37-51 72.5 74 Riley Jacobs 24% (18 pts) Flash Burton 16% (12 pts) Aidan Able 21% (3 misses) Flash Burton 21% (3 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 20-55 36.4 40 Devin Ceaser 20% (8 pts) Aidan Able 15% (6 pts) Flash Burton 37% (13 misses) Devin Ceaser 14% (5 misses)
Mid-range left 4-8 50.0 8 Devin Ceaser 50% (4 pts) Flash Burton 50% (4 pts) Devin Ceaser 50% (2 misses) Aidan Able 25% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 8-13 61.5 16 Devin Ceaser 62% (10 pts) Flash Burton 25% (4 pts) Devin Ceaser 40% (2 misses) Flash Burton 40% (2 misses)
Mid-range right 1-15 6.7 2 Flash Burton 100% (2 pts) - Devin Ceaser 57% (8 misses) Flash Burton 14% (2 misses)
Left corner 3 2-9 22.2 6 Aidan Able 50% (3 pts) Jovan Ristic 50% (3 pts) Devin Ceaser 29% (2 misses) Aidan Able 14% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 2-6 33.3 6 Evan Morton 50% (3 pts) Jovan Ristic 50% (3 pts) Jovan Ristic 75% (3 misses) Aidan Able 25% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 17-49 34.7 51 Aidan Able 35% (18 pts) Devin Ceaser 18% (9 pts) Devin Ceaser 19% (6 misses) Aidan Able 16% (5 misses)
Above-break 3 center 5-24 20.8 15 Carlos Varela 60% (9 pts) Aidan Able 20% (3 pts) Aidan Able 32% (6 misses) Devin Ceaser 26% (5 misses)
Above-break 3 right 13-33 39.4 39 Devin Ceaser 38% (15 pts) Aidan Able 31% (12 pts) Aidan Able 20% (4 misses) Devin Ceaser 20% (4 misses)