UCF
Model Outputs
2003-2004
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and includes an unverified participant universe. |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1410 (#98) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +28.9 (#111) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.690 (#26) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.337 (#85) | AdjNet -5.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.336 (#84) | AdjNet -5.8 |
2004 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-11-26 | @ | College of Charleston | L | 63 - 72 |
| 2003-11-28 | @ | The Citadel | W | 74 - 60 |
| 2003-12-04 | N | Florida | L | 39 - 59 |
| 2003-12-06 | vs | Navy | W | 80 - 52 |
| 2003-12-15 | @ | Campbell | W | 68 - 61 |
| 2003-12-17 | @ | Gardner-Webb | W | 71 - 60 |
| 2003-12-22 | @ | Niagara | W | 69 - 67 |
| 2003-12-30 | vs | Tennessee–Martin | W | 80 - 68 |
| 2004-01-03 | vs | Georgia State | W | 70 - 60 |
| 2004-01-05 | vs | Mercer | W | 60 - 56 |
| 2004-01-09 | @ | Stetson | W | 71 - 58 |
| 2004-01-11 | @ | Jacksonville | W | 63 - 51 |
| 2004-01-14 | @ | Florida Atlantic | W | 70 - 52 |
| 2004-01-17 | vs | Lipscomb | W | 68 - 58 |
| 2004-01-19 | vs | Belmont | W | 68 - 63 |
| 2004-01-23 | @ | Troy | W | 74 - 72 |
| 2004-01-28 | vs | Florida Atlantic | W | 75 - 66 |
| 2004-01-31 | vs | Troy | L | 64 - 76 |
| 2004-02-05 | @ | Belmont | L | 61 - 77 |
| 2004-02-07 | @ | Lipscomb | W | 73 - 57 |
| 2004-02-12 | vs | Jacksonville | W | 78 - 69 |
| 2004-02-14 | vs | Stetson | W | 74 - 54 |
| 2004-02-19 | @ | Mercer | W | 83 - 58 |
| 2004-02-21 | @ | Georgia State | L | 61 - 63 |
| 2004-02-26 | vs | Gardner-Webb | W | 87 - 79 |
| 2004-02-28 | vs | Campbell | W | 106 - 56 |
| 2004-03-04 | N | Jacksonville | W | 71 - 63 |
| 2004-03-05 | @ | Belmont | W | 64 - 62 |
| 2004-03-06 | N | Troy | W | 60 - 55 |
| 2004-03-19 | N | Pittsburgh | L | 44 - 53 |
2004 Roster
No roster data available for this season.