UCCS
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ | 979 (#174) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ | 1026 (#147) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More โ | 989 (#158) | HCA +73 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More โ | +8.3 (#143) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More โ | +4.3 (#172) | HCA +2.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ | 0.567 (#126) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More โ | 0.663 (#162) | AdjNet +5.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More โ | 0.669 (#160) | AdjNet +6.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More โ | 0.613 (#151) | AdjO 86.7 | AdjD 81.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More โ | 0.529 (#141) | AdjO 81.9 | AdjD 80.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More โ | 0.578 (#172) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More โ | 0.561 (#174) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More โ | 973 (#182) | RD 158 | GP 29 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Midwestern St. | L | 90 - 97 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Cameron | W | 91 - 85 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | W | 85 - 84 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 83 - 87 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Western Wash. | W | 85 - 81 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Simon Fraser | L | 84 - 87 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Colorado Mesa | W | 92 - 80 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Westminster (UT) | W | 80 - 79 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Black Hills St. | L | 92 - 97 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Chadron St. | W | 100 - 74 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Denver | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Bethany (KS) | W | 103 - 83 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Western Colo. | W | 98 - 89 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Colo. Christian | L | 87 - 88 |
| 2026-01-08 | vs | CSU Pueblo | L | 73 - 82 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Regis (CO) | W | 93 - 74 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | MSU Denver | W | 98 - 85 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | N.M. Highlands | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Fort Lewis | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Western Colo. | W | 93 - 82 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Colorado Mesa | L | 83 - 95 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | South Dakota Mines | W | 89 - 77 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Black Hills St. | L | 81 - 112 |
| 2026-02-10 | @ | CSU Pueblo | L | 69 - 80 |
| 2026-02-14 | vs | Colo. Christian | W | 88 - 74 |
| 2026-02-19 | @ | Colo. Sch. of Mines | W | 79 - 66 |
| 2026-02-21 | @ | Regis (CO) | W | 85 - 74 |
| 2026-02-26 | vs | Adams St. | L | 94 - 101 |
| 2026-02-28 | vs | N.M. Highlands | L | 84 - 86 |
| 2026-03-03 | @ | Black Hills St. | L | 73 - 74 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marzouq Ibn Abdur-Razaaq | - | 25 | 23.2 | 14.2 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 9.7 | 10.9 | - | - | - | - | 57.2 | 35.1 | 69.2 | - | 62.5 | 59.9 |
| Xavier Martinez | - | 27 | 29.6 | 12.6 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 9.9 | - | - | - | - | 44.4 | 33.1 | 78.1 | - | 57.6 | 52.4 |
| Brody Hull | - | 28 | 24.4 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 9.7 | - | - | - | - | 46.0 | 30.9 | 85.3 | - | 59.7 | 52.1 |
| Mario Williams Jr. | - | 28 | 24.1 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 8.4 | 6.7 | - | - | - | - | 41.3 | 30.7 | 77.7 | - | 55.4 | 49.6 |
| Jayden Washington | - | 3 | 18.1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 9.3 | -1 | 3 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 60.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | -2.38 | 69.3 | 70.0 |
| Gavin Carter | - | 24 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 4.2 | - | - | - | - | 48.9 | 0.0 | 61.8 | - | 52.8 | 48.9 |
| Jezza McKenzie | - | 28 | 22.7 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 7.7 | - | - | - | - | 42.6 | 43.1 | 69.0 | - | 57.0 | 52.9 |
| Derik Pranger | - | 11 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | -28 | 8 | -3.5 | -11.0 | 33.3 | 29.3 | 78.6 | -4.22 | 45.9 | 42.0 |
| Alexander Hurr | - | 27 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | -19 | 19 | -1.0 | -3.6 | 49.6 | 39.7 | 60.6 | -1.19 | 61.4 | 60.6 |
| Shawn Williams | - | 28 | 14.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | - | - | - | - | 55.1 | 0.0 | 52.2 | - | 55.7 | 55.1 |
| Tre Lucia | - | 28 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - | 48.2 | 42.6 | 92.3 | - | 64.8 | 62.0 |
| Evan McKean | - | 28 | 13.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | - | - | - | - | 30.4 | 20.5 | 59.5 | - | 39.4 | 34.3 |
| James Ellis | - | 19 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 55.6 | 48.0 | 75.0 | 0.02 | 72.8 | 72.2 |
| Gunter Daniels | - | 4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -21.6 | 28.6 | 25.0 | 75.0 | -0.55 | 45.7 | 35.7 |
| Brady Jones | - | 9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - | - | - | - | 75.0 | 0 | 75.0 | - | 76.8 | 75.0 |
| Greg Gerhardt | - | 3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.3 | - | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Joshua Ray | - | 22 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | - | - | - | - | 45.5 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 47.7 | 45.5 |
| Azar Ghezae | - | 3 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.3 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG