UC Merced
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 829 (#357) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 849 (#330) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.5 (#221) | HCA +2.8 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.093 (#540) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.597 (#194) | NetEff +3.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.219 (#509) | AdjNet -11.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.221 (#511) | AdjNet -10.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.321 (#533) | AdjO 64.9 | AdjD 73.2 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-06 | @ | Cal Poly | L | 40 - 72 |
| 2024-11-23 | @ | Sonoma St. | L | 63 - 70 |
| 2024-11-30 | @ | Dominican (CA) | L | 58 - 81 |
| 2024-12-01 | @ | Academy of Art | L | 62 - 67 |
| 2024-12-05 | @ | Fresno St. | L | 60 - 83 |
| 2024-12-07 | vs | UC Santa Cruz | L | 61 - 63 |
| 2024-12-21 | @ | Chico St. | L | 65 - 74 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicole Lukito | - | 7 | 34.3 | 13.4 | 11.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 11.1 | 17.1 | -46 | -2.6 | -2.4 | 47.4 | 28.6 | 85.7 | -0.05 | 53.9 | 48.7 |
| Madison Diaz | - | 5 | 24.4 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 8.8 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 45.5 | 46.4 | 100.0 | 0.05 | 61.3 | 60.2 |
| Sarina Nagra | - | 7 | 32.0 | 10.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 13.3 | 1.6 | -66 | -3.7 | -3.2 | 30.1 | 30.6 | 56.2 | 0.05 | 38.0 | 36.0 |
| Leilani Blecha | - | 6 | 26.3 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 9.8 | 0.8 | - | - | - | 28.8 | 24.3 | 75.0 | -0.66 | 37.9 | 36.4 |
| Mariah Flores | - | 7 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 2.4 | -88 | -5.2 | -7.2 | 41.7 | 60.0 | 75.0 | -0.66 | 54.5 | 50.0 |
| Jazzy Beltran | - | 6 | 29.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 1.3 | -81 | -6.2 | -6.1 | 24.4 | 45.5 | 80.0 | -0.32 | 36.3 | 30.5 |
| Paloma Ramirez | - | 7 | 16.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 6.0 | 0.7 | -73 | -4.1 | -4.9 | 26.2 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.33 | 26.2 | 26.2 |
| Elise Lebeau | - | 2 | 18.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.5 | -0.5 | -21 | -1.2 | -2.3 | 18.2 | 16.7 | 0 | -0.24 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| Megan Williams | - | 7 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 25 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 40.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.05 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Sydney Boyd | - | 6 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -60 | -4.3 | -14.5 | 20.0 | 0 | 75.0 | -0.59 | 29.8 | 20.0 |
| Quinn Godfrey | - | 7 | 8.9 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.3 | -74 | -4.4 | -7.7 | 16.7 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.27 | 21.8 | 16.7 |
| Gabby Martini | - | 6 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -1.2 | - | - | - | 11.1 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| Isabella Mia Henson | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Maya Sanborn | - | 5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Alex Surrena-Thompson | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG