UC Merced
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 821 (#243) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 839 (#240) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 908 (#228) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.6 (#219) | HCA +2.6 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -7.7 (#250) | HCA +2.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.152 (#244) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.225 (#248) | AdjNet -10.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.222 (#248) | AdjNet -10.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.342 (#249) | AdjO 62.3 | AdjD 69.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.316 (#251) | AdjO 59.4 | AdjD 67.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.288 (#250) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.283 (#249) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 827 (#239) | RD 152 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Fresno Pacific | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Dominican (CA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Hawaii Pacific | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Chaminade | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Alas. Anchorage | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Alas. Anchorage | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Chico St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | CSUSB | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | UC Riverside | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Cal State LA | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | San Fran. St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Stanislaus St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Stanislaus St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-12 | @ | CSUSB | L | 40 - 53 |
| 2026-02-14 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 35 - 76 |
| 2026-02-19 | vs | Cal State LA | L | 41 - 81 |
| 2026-02-21 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | W | 81 - 72 |
| 2026-02-26 | @ | San Fran. St. | L | 53 - 63 |
| 2026-02-28 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 69 - 75 |
2026 Roster
No roster data available for this season.