UC Merced
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 780 (#517) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 857 (#476) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 848 (#654) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.9 (#196) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.3 (#525) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.093 (#540) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.999 (#54) | NetEff +49.7 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.156 (#379) | NetEff -13.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.219 (#509) | AdjNet -11.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.221 (#511) | AdjNet -10.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.321 (#533) | AdjO 64.9 | AdjD 73.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.298 (#614) | AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 71.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.214 (#590) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.220 (#593) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 775 (#490) | RD 93 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Fresno Pacific | W | 73 - 61 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Dominican (CA) | L | 70 - 84 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Hawaii Pacific | W | 67 - 57 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Chaminade | W | 66 - 60 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Alas. Anchorage | L | 80 - 93 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Alas. Anchorage | L | 58 - 100 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Chico St. | L | 54 - 88 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 55 - 94 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 40 - 53 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | CSUSB | L | 54 - 58 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | UC Riverside | L | 52 - 93 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 64 - 70 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Cal State LA | L | 75 - 96 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | L | 89 - 90 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | San Fran. St. | W | 63 - 58 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Stanislaus St. | W | 70 - 52 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Stanislaus St. | L | 58 - 66 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | L | 62 - 73 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | W | 83 - 69 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 66 - 77 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Chico St. | L | 73 - 83 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarina Nagra | - | 21 | 32.4 | 14.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 11.8 | 5.7 | -141 | -5.6 | -22.7 | 40.5 | 39.7 | 76.3 | 0.08 | 54.4 | 51.0 |
| Nicole Lukito | - | 21 | 33.9 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 11.0 | 16.9 | -99 | -4.0 | -13.9 | 47.4 | 48.5 | 82.7 | -0.54 | 56.3 | 50.9 |
| Paloma Ramirez | - | 21 | 28.4 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 11.0 | 4.8 | -70 | -2.8 | -12.2 | 33.3 | 35.8 | 70.3 | 0.09 | 43.3 | 40.7 |
| Mariah Flores | - | 21 | 20.4 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 8.8 | 2.0 | -107 | -4.3 | -31.9 | 31.0 | 27.5 | 84.6 | -1.98 | 42.8 | 37.8 |
| Elise LeBeau | - | 21 | 19.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 10 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 36.7 | 23.5 | 69.6 | 2.18 | 49.4 | 41.8 |
| Quinn Godfrey | - | 21 | 18.7 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 7.6 | -54 | -2.2 | -17.9 | 44.3 | 0 | 66.7 | -1.55 | 46.3 | 44.3 |
| Jazzy Beltran | - | 16 | 31.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | -151 | -7.2 | -30.4 | 24.7 | 16.7 | 71.4 | -3.54 | 35.8 | 27.2 |
| Kylie Salzler | - | 19 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | -28 | -1.4 | -21.5 | 37.7 | 30.3 | 100.0 | -0.04 | 46.6 | 44.9 |
| Sydney Boyd | - | 17 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | -101 | -4.8 | -58.6 | 42.1 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 1.8 | 42.5 | 42.1 |
| Ixchel Rojo Valdez | - | 17 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 7 | 0.4 | 10.1 | 31.8 | 30.0 | 100.0 | 0.35 | 44.2 | 38.6 |
| Amanda Torrez | - | 4 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -12 | -3.0 | -31.3 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -1.23 | 37.0 | 20.0 |
| Campbell Mathews | - | 6 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 14.3 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 12.7 | 14.3 |
| Aliya Latif | - | 1 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Simdi Chukwu | - | 2 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -1.5 | -19 | -4.8 | -518.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.49 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG