🐻⬇️🏀

UC Merced

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: UC Merced
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 758 (#511) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 827 (#486) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 848 (#654) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -2.5 (#249) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -11.3 (#525) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.093 (#540) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +49.7 More → 0.999 (#54) NetEff +49.7
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -13.1 More → 0.156 (#379) NetEff -13.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -11.0 More → 0.219 (#509) AdjNet -11.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -10.7 More → 0.221 (#511) AdjNet -10.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.9 | AdjD 73.2 More → 0.321 (#533) AdjO 64.9 | AdjD 73.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 71.9 More → 0.298 (#614) AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 71.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.214 (#590) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.220 (#593) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 24 More → 789 (#470) RD 93 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Fresno Pacific - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 vs Dominican (CA) - Incomplete score
2025-11-21 @ Hawaii Pacific - Incomplete score
2025-11-22 @ Chaminade - Incomplete score
2025-11-28 @ Alas. Anchorage - Incomplete score
2025-11-29 @ Alas. Anchorage - Incomplete score
2025-12-04 @ Chico St. - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 @ Cal Poly Humboldt - Incomplete score
2025-12-19 vs Cal Poly Pomona - Incomplete score
2025-12-21 vs CSUSB - Incomplete score
2025-12-30 @ UC Riverside - Incomplete score
2026-01-02 vs Cal St. San Marcos - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Cal State LA - Incomplete score
2026-01-15 vs Cal St. East Bay - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs San Fran. St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-22 vs Stanislaus St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Stanislaus St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-29 @ Cal St. Monterey Bay - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 @ Cal St. San Marcos - Incomplete score
2026-02-05 vs Cal Poly Humboldt - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Chico St. - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Nicole Lukito - 20 34.4 14.6 11.6 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 11.2 17.3 -99 -4.0 -13.9 48.0 48.4 82.2 1.73 56.6 51.3
Sarina Nagra - 20 32.7 14.4 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 2.2 11.9 5.8 -141 -5.6 -22.7 40.8 39.7 76.3 -0.09 54.7 51.3
Paloma Ramirez - 20 28.2 10.5 5.5 1.5 1.6 0.2 3.0 10.9 5.4 -70 -2.8 -12.2 34.4 37.4 70.3 -0.98 44.8 42.2
Mariah Flores - 20 19.9 7.8 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.2 1.8 8.4 1.9 -107 -4.3 -31.9 30.2 27.7 85.7 -3.94 42.0 37.0
Elise LeBeau - 20 18.8 4.8 2.4 2.4 1.4 0.1 2.4 3.9 4.8 10 0.4 2.3 35.9 21.2 72.7 0.86 48.8 40.4
Quinn Godfrey - 20 18.5 4.4 5.6 1.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 4.5 7.7 -54 -2.2 -17.9 42.9 0 66.7 -0.46 45.1 42.9
Jazzy Beltran - 16 31.3 4.3 1.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 2.6 5.1 2.1 -151 -7.2 -30.4 24.7 16.7 71.4 -2.84 35.8 27.2
Kylie Salzler - 18 6.8 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3.6 1.0 -28 -1.4 -21.5 38.5 31.2 100.0 -2.92 47.1 46.2
Sydney Boyd - 17 10.0 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.6 -101 -4.8 -58.6 42.1 0.0 40.0 -3.45 42.5 42.1
Ixchel Rojo Valdez - 16 8.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.6 7 0.4 10.1 31.8 30.0 100.0 1.0 44.2 38.6
Amanda Torrez - 3 5.6 0.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 -12 -3.0 -31.3 0.0 0 100.0 -1.88 34.7 0.0
Campbell Mathews - 6 3.6 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.0 - - - 14.3 0 0.0 - 12.7 14.3
Simdi Chukwu - 2 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 -1.5 -19 -4.8 -518.2 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG