Trinity (CT)
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1188 (#50) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1175 (#64) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1081 (#81) | HCA +58 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +11.1 (#66) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.0 (#47) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.727 (#86) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.859 (#39) | AdjNet +15.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.862 (#39) | AdjNet +15.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.733 (#42) | AdjO 72.5 | AdjD 61.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.697 (#31) | AdjO 70.9 | AdjD 61.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.773 (#43) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.767 (#42) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1201 (#55) | RD 127 | GP 26 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-18 | @ | UMass Dartmouth | L | 76 - 83 |
| 2016-11-19 | vs | Southern Vt. | L | 80 - 83 |
| 2016-11-22 | @ | Elms | W | 88 - 59 |
| 2016-11-30 | @ | Keene St. | L | 66 - 76 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Bard | W | 70 - 57 |
| 2016-12-05 | vs | Merchant Marine | W | 77 - 45 |
| 2016-12-07 | vs | Springfield | W | 74 - 66 |
| 2016-12-09 | vs | Susquehanna | L | 58 - 62 |
| 2016-12-10 | @ | King's (PA) | W | 59 - 52 |
| 2016-12-30 | vs | St. Joseph's (L.I.) | W | 78 - 66 |
| 2016-12-31 | vs | Eastern Conn. St. | L | 65 - 72 |
| 2017-01-03 | vs | Plattsburgh St. | W | 107 - 80 |
| 2017-01-06 | vs | Pine Manor | W | 83 - 65 |
| 2017-01-08 | @ | Williams | W | 65 - 63 |
| 2017-01-13 | @ | Connecticut Col. | W | 70 - 52 |
| 2017-01-14 | @ | Wesleyan (CT) | L | 61 - 65 |
| 2017-01-20 | vs | Colby | W | 65 - 56 |
| 2017-01-21 | vs | Bowdoin | W | 71 - 53 |
| 2017-01-24 | @ | Vassar | W | 67 - 58 |
| 2017-01-28 | @ | Amherst | L | 53 - 66 |
| 2017-02-03 | vs | Tufts | L | 75 - 78 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Bates | W | 83 - 66 |
| 2017-02-10 | @ | Hamilton | W | 67 - 53 |
| 2017-02-11 | @ | Middlebury | L | 80 - 97 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Wesleyan (CT) | W | 51 - 49 |
| 2017-02-25 | vs | Middlebury | L | 60 - 76 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.