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Transylvania

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Transylvania
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 967 (#434) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1008 (#374) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1124 (#61) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -3.1 (#163) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +1.6 (#323) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.545 (#436) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.4 More → 0.404 (#398) AdjNet -3.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.7 More → 0.394 (#398) AdjNet -3.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.1 | AdjD 75.5 More → 0.446 (#396) AdjO 73.1 | AdjD 75.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 66.6 More → 0.612 (#197) AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 66.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.585 (#327) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.606 (#313) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 96 | GP 22 More → 1125 (#134) RD 96 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Muskingum L 81 - 92
2025-11-15 vs Berry W 70 - 68
2025-11-22 @ Mount Union L 66 - 88
2025-11-23 vs John Carroll L 82 - 84
2025-12-03 @ Earlham W 86 - 70
2025-12-06 vs Mt. St. Joseph W 59 - 55
2025-12-13 @ Bluffton W 67 - 65
2025-12-17 @ Manchester L 77 - 80
2025-12-20 vs Wooster W 74 - 62
2025-12-28 vs Gustavus Adolphus L 57 - 60
2025-12-29 vs Dubuque W 61 - 45
2026-01-03 @ Anderson (IN) L 57 - 71
2026-01-07 @ Hanover L 71 - 73
2026-01-10 vs Rose-Hulman W 65 - 63
2026-01-14 vs Franklin L 66 - 75
2026-01-17 vs Manchester W 100 - 88
2026-01-21 vs Earlham W 81 - 42
2026-01-23 vs Anderson (IN) W 86 - 61
2026-01-28 @ Berea W 73 - 64
2026-01-31 @ Rose-Hulman W 61 - 48
2026-02-04 vs Berea W 91 - 77
2026-02-07 vs Bluffton W 75 - 61

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Hunter Barr - 22 29.3 18.2 8.3 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.3 11.3 17.7 59 2.7 14.7 59.0 25.7 55.7 2.14 61.4 60.8
Drew Marshall - 22 31.8 12.9 8.5 4.1 1.2 0.2 3.3 10.7 13.0 48 2.2 11.3 40.9 35.0 63.3 3.09 51.7 48.3
Ian Reesor - 20 20.2 8.4 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.2 1.4 7.8 5.0 70 3.5 21.1 33.5 25.0 72.1 3.45 45.7 38.7
Jaxon Smith - 22 27.1 8.1 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.6 5.9 7.0 44 2.2 12.4 43.4 44.2 78.0 0.08 60.5 56.6
Luke Idlett - 22 20.7 7.2 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.3 5.6 5.0 21 1.0 5.5 42.3 34.8 71.9 2.38 58.0 55.3
Dakota Capps - 17 25.2 5.6 3.3 4.6 1.1 0.2 2.3 4.4 8.2 -16 -1.0 -9.6 31.1 17.6 76.7 -2.81 47.3 33.1
Cayden Lancaster - 22 13.6 4.5 2.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.7 4.6 3.0 40 2.0 17.5 38.2 24.6 43.8 3.73 45.9 45.6
Sam Stone - 22 14.6 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.6 3.1 4.7 -22 -1.0 -18.1 46.4 0.0 64.0 -2.68 50.0 46.4
J.C. Walbert - 22 11.6 2.5 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.9 1 0.0 0.9 36.7 33.3 90.9 -0.65 51.1 45.9
Brandon Rowe - 18 8.7 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.7 1.0 2.1 -26 -1.5 -28.4 22.2 0.0 61.1 -2.66 36.7 22.2
Colby Wilburn - 11 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.5 -26 -2.9 -239.1 16.7 16.7 66.7 0.27 34.2 25.0
Nick Osborne - 6 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 -11 -2.2 -115.8 66.7 0 16.7 0.8 44.3 66.7
Jake Fithian - 10 2.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 -0.3 -24 -2.7 -587.8 25.0 11.1 0 0.9 29.2 29.2
Justin Bibb - 6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 -16 -3.2 -280.3 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.13 72.5 0.0
Logan Tharp - 3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -11 -2.8 -251.4 0 0 0 0.14 0 0
Trey Davis - 5 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 -14 -3.5 -420.0 0 0 0 -0.57 0 0
Jaden Davis - 5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -16 -4.0 -365.7 0.0 0 0 -0.56 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG