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Towson

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Towson Tigers
Program History
Coach: Laura Harper

2026-2027 Team Stats (2 games)

68.5
PPG
83.5
Opp
-15.0
Margin
34.9%
FG%
24.5%
3P%
57.6%
FT%
40.0
RPG
10.0
APG
10.0
TO
77.3
Est. poss./game
57.1
Adj PPG
59.6
Adj Opp PPG
#206
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 949 (returning production + recruiting): last season 961, returning -31, transfers +19, freshmen +0 More → 947 (#201) Preseason prior 949 (returning production + recruiting): last season 961, returning -31, transfers +19, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +215 elo More → 955 (#205) HCA +215 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +215 elo More → 976 (#209) HCA +215 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +9.3 More → -3.8 (#209) HCA +9.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +9.3 More → -3.7 (#210) HCA +9.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.177 (#261) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -10.6 More → 0.394 (#215) AdjNet -10.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -10.3 More → 0.393 (#216) AdjNet -10.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 57.1 | AdjD 59.6 More → 0.432 (#206) AdjO 57.1 | AdjD 59.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 57.2 | AdjD 59.6 More → 0.448 (#208) AdjO 57.2 | AdjD 59.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.402 (#212) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.405 (#213) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 219 | GP 1 More → 942 (#211) RD 219 | GP 1
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast. More → 0.370 (#194) Preseason prior only; more training games are needed for a forecast.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 @ Iowa Hawkeyes L 45 - 73
2026-11-05 vs Frostburg State Bobcats L 92 - 94
2026-11-09 vs Delaware Blue Hens - Preview
2026-11-13 @ Loyola Maryland Greyhounds - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Zoli Khalil Zoli Khalil G 2 41.0 11.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 12.5 4.5 -33 2 -16.5 -16.2 28.0 23.1 85.7 -3.17 41.0 34.0
Eva Wilkerson Eva Wilkerson G 2 26.5 10.0 6.0 1.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 8.5 11.5 -27 2 -13.5 -20.4 47.1 100.0 33.3 -2.14 50.9 52.9
Ava Renninger Ava Renninger G 2 36.5 8.5 4.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.0 12.5 -0.5 -30 2 -15.0 -16.3 28.0 28.6 50.0 -1.01 32.8 32.0
Peyton White Peyton White F 2 23.0 8.5 8.5 0.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 4.5 15.0 3 2 1.5 2.6 77.8 0 37.5 0.71 67.9 77.8
Thalia Shepard Thalia Shepard G 2 31.5 8.5 3.0 1.0 2.5 0.0 1.0 17.0 -3.0 -36 2 -18.0 -22.5 23.5 0.0 50.0 -2.08 24.4 23.5
Masyn Marchbanks Masyn Marchbanks G 1 16.0 8.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 7.0 0 1 0.0 0.0 33.3 20.0 75.0 0.08 51.5 41.7
Diamond Watters Diamond Watters F 2 18.0 7.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.5 3.5 -22 2 -11.0 -25.5 46.2 0 100.0 -1.63 52.4 46.2
Nadeya Regala Nadeya Regala G 2 16.0 6.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 5.5 2.5 3 2 1.5 3.8 45.5 42.9 0.0 0.17 56.8 59.1
Jillian Watson Jillian Watson G 1 7.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 10 1 10.0 65.0 50.0 50.0 0 -0.13 75.0 75.0
Viki Matulevicius Viki Matulevicius G 2 9.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 0 2 0.0 0.0 66.7 0.0 0 -0.7 66.7 66.7
Lisen Curman Lisen Curman G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Sam Donovan Sam Donovan G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Akeelah Lafleur Akeelah Lafleur F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Keyarah Rainey Keyarah Rainey G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Asya Lara Barnes Asya Lara Barnes G 2 11.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 -2.5 -18 2 -9.0 -31.9 0.0 0.0 0 -2.49 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

152 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

White28% Shepard40% Regala40% Khalil100% Renninger33% Wilkerson25% Wilkerson100% Regala50% Renninger100% Renninger50%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Watters38% Shepard32% Renninger27% Renninger43% Watters33% Marchbanks50% Barnes29% Renninger30% Khalil50% Khalil33%
Misses: who misses most here

Eva WilkersonZoli KhalilAva RenningerThalia ShepardPeyton WhiteNadeya RegalaDiamond WattersMasyn MarchbanksAsya Lara Barnes

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 18-31 58.1 36 Peyton White 28% (10 pts) Diamond Watters 22% (8 pts) Diamond Watters 38% (5 misses) Thalia Shepard 31% (4 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 10-35 28.6 20 Thalia Shepard 40% (8 pts) Ava Renninger 20% (4 pts) Thalia Shepard 32% (8 misses) Ava Renninger 24% (6 misses)
Mid-range left 5-16 31.2 10 Nadeya Regala 40% (4 pts) Ava Renninger 20% (2 pts) Ava Renninger 27% (3 misses) Thalia Shepard 27% (3 misses)
Mid-range center 2-9 22.2 4 Zoli Khalil 100% (4 pts) - Ava Renninger 43% (3 misses) Thalia Shepard 43% (3 misses)
Mid-range right 6-12 50.0 12 Ava Renninger 33% (4 pts) Diamond Watters 33% (4 pts) Diamond Watters 33% (2 misses) Thalia Shepard 33% (2 misses)
Left corner 3 4-8 50.0 12 Eva Wilkerson 25% (3 pts) Jillian Watson 25% (3 pts) Masyn Marchbanks 50% (2 misses) Nadeya Regala 25% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 1-8 12.5 3 Eva Wilkerson 100% (3 pts) - Asya Lara Barnes 29% (2 misses) Zoli Khalil 29% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 4-14 28.6 12 Nadeya Regala 50% (6 pts) Zoli Khalil 50% (6 pts) Ava Renninger 30% (3 misses) Asya Lara Barnes 20% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 center 1-5 20.0 3 Ava Renninger 100% (3 pts) - Zoli Khalil 50% (2 misses) Asya Lara Barnes 25% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right 2-14 14.3 6 Ava Renninger 50% (3 pts) Zoli Khalil 50% (3 pts) Zoli Khalil 33% (4 misses) Thalia Shepard 25% (3 misses)