Towson
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
62.8
PPG
68.8
Opp
-6.0
Margin
37.1%
FG%
25.9%
3P%
59.7%
FT%
34.8
RPG
10.3
APG
10.3
TO
68.6
Est. poss./game
52.9
Adj PPG
56.4
Adj Opp PPG
#200
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 982 (#177) | Preseason prior 949 (returning production + recruiting): last season 961, returning -31, transfers +19, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 986 (#173) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 987 (#169) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -5.5 (#211) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.5 (#211) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.280 (#215) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.346 (#226) | AdjNet -8.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.371 (#216) | AdjNet -7.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.423 (#200) | AdjO 52.9 | AdjD 56.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.423 (#200) | AdjO 52.9 | AdjD 56.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.420 (#192) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.420 (#192) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 980 (#171) | RD 178 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.414 (#190) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | @ | Iowa Hawkeyes | L | 45 - 73 |
| 2026-11-05 | vs | Frostburg State Bobcats | L | 92 - 94 |
| 2026-11-09 | vs | Delaware Blue Hens | W | 57 - 55 |
| 2026-11-13 | @ | Loyola Maryland Greyhounds | W | 57 - 53 |
| 2026-11-15 | vs | UMBC Retrievers | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-18 | @ | Villanova Wildcats | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-20 | @ | Lehigh Mountain Hawks | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zoli Khalil
|
G | 3 | 39.0 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 11.0 | 3.7 | -32 | 3 | -10.7 | -10.9 | 30.3 | 27.8 | 72.7 | -4.0 | 43.6 | 37.9 |
Thalia Shepard
|
G | 4 | 34.5 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 14.2 | 0.5 | -27 | 4 | -6.8 | -7.8 | 29.8 | 11.1 | 87.5 | -1.63 | 34.7 | 30.7 |
Eva Wilkerson
|
G | 4 | 28.0 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 9.5 | 10.5 | -22 | 4 | -5.5 | -7.9 | 42.1 | 40.0 | 36.4 | -1.76 | 44.4 | 44.7 |
Ava Renninger
|
G | 2 | 36.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 12.5 | -0.5 | -30 | 2 | -15.0 | -16.3 | 28.0 | 28.6 | 50.0 | -1.19 | 32.8 | 32.0 |
Masyn Marchbanks
|
G | 3 | 21.3 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 12 | 3 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 33.3 | 31.6 | 66.7 | 0.85 | 50.8 | 47.6 |
Diamond Watters
|
F | 4 | 19.2 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 3.8 | -27 | 4 | -6.8 | -14.2 | 52.2 | 0 | 71.4 | -2.44 | 55.6 | 52.2 |
Peyton White
|
F | 4 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 12.5 | 23 | 4 | 5.8 | 11.4 | 80.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 2.44 | 72.2 | 80.0 |
Nadeya Regala
|
G | 4 | 14.2 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 37.5 | 30.0 | 66.7 | 0.64 | 49.1 | 46.9 |
Viki Matulevicius
|
G | 4 | 16.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.8 | 28.6 | 0 | -1.15 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Akeelah Lafleur
|
F | 2 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -4 | 2 | -2.0 | -8.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -2.01 | 52.1 | 50.0 |
Jillian Watson
|
G | 2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 13.0 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -1.91 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Keyarah Rainey
|
G | 1 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -5.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.88 | 12.9 | 0.0 |
Lisen Curman
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Sam Donovan
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Asya Lara Barnes
|
G | 2 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | -2.5 | -18 | 2 | -9.0 | -31.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.47 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
259 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Thalia ShepardEva WilkersonZoli KhalilDiamond WattersMasyn MarchbanksAva RenningerNadeya RegalaAsya Lara Barnes
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 37-68 | 54.4 | 74 | Eva Wilkerson 24% (18 pts) | Peyton White 24% (18 pts) | Eva Wilkerson 29% (9 misses) | Thalia Shepard 26% (8 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 18-54 | 33.3 | 36 | Eva Wilkerson 28% (10 pts) | Thalia Shepard 28% (10 pts) | Thalia Shepard 36% (13 misses) | Ava Renninger 17% (6 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 6-22 | 27.3 | 12 | Nadeya Regala 50% (6 pts) | Ava Renninger 17% (2 pts) | Thalia Shepard 31% (5 misses) | Ava Renninger 19% (3 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 4-14 | 28.6 | 8 | Zoli Khalil 75% (6 pts) | Thalia Shepard 25% (2 pts) | Thalia Shepard 40% (4 misses) | Ava Renninger 30% (3 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 9-16 | 56.2 | 18 | Diamond Watters 33% (6 pts) | Thalia Shepard 33% (6 pts) | Diamond Watters 29% (2 misses) | Nadeya Regala 29% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 6-13 | 46.2 | 18 | Eva Wilkerson 17% (3 pts) | Jillian Watson 17% (3 pts) | Masyn Marchbanks 43% (3 misses) | Zoli Khalil 29% (2 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-11 | 18.2 | 6 | Eva Wilkerson 50% (3 pts) | Masyn Marchbanks 50% (3 pts) | Asya Lara Barnes 22% (2 misses) | Zoli Khalil 22% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 5-25 | 20.0 | 15 | Nadeya Regala 40% (6 pts) | Zoli Khalil 40% (6 pts) | Thalia Shepard 20% (4 misses) | Ava Renninger 15% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 4-11 | 36.4 | 12 | Ava Renninger 25% (3 pts) | Masyn Marchbanks 25% (3 pts) | Zoli Khalil 43% (3 misses) | Asya Lara Barnes 14% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 5-25 | 20.0 | 15 | Masyn Marchbanks 40% (6 pts) | Ava Renninger 20% (3 pts) | Masyn Marchbanks 30% (6 misses) | Zoli Khalil 25% (5 misses) |